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Flood

Flood presents a growing and complex risk for insurers and civil authorities throughout the world. Modelling flood hazard and risk presents significant challenges caused by the extensive range of factors contributing to flood events of given magnitudes at any given location at any particular time. The development of flood modelling and risk management solutions is an important focus for WRN members.

Insurers and civil authorities are required to evaluate and manage flood risk at various spatial and temporal scales and the WRN flood programme is unique in envisaging an integrated modelling continuum from local to global analysis incorporating hazard, exposure, vulnerability and loss. Only the breadth of WRN membership and integration around shared platforms and processes has enabled this comprehensive response to flood risk.

Global Flood Risk Modelling.

The WRN has developed mapping and analysis tools to provide comprehensive and consistent analysis of global flood risk for portfolios and populations. Using state-of-the-art analysis methods and collaborating with wider global flood modelling  efforts across science enables the WRN to develop scale-appropriate assessments of hazard and risk. The trade-off for comprehensive global coverage is coarseness of spatial resolutions, but the WRN modelling platform will evolve as further data and research become available enhancing these capabilities.

Regional and National Flood Risk Modelling.

The traditional scale of flood risk modelling for insurance companies has been at national and regional scales, corresponding with national insurance markets, data availability and existing platform capabilities. The WRN has an extensive regional flood risk modelling programme to meet current industry requirements, confronting new challenges such as supply chain risk and informing the WRN's global flood modelling programme

Urban Flood Risk Modelling.

Flood risk exposures are concentrated in major cities worldwide, many within exposed coastal and riverine locations. The WRN has pioneered the development of a range of techniques to provide insurers and urban authorities with flood models, mapping and decision support tools to manage flood risk at a city level. These models also inform the WRN's regional and global modelling programme.

Event Forecasting & Response.

The WRN has pioneered the use of forecasting, satellite imagery and other remote sensing techniques to help communities and insurers prepare for and manage the consequences of flood events. New satellite platforms and services in development with WRN partners offer significant advances in pre-, during- and post-event flood risk management.

Flood Modeling Technical Research.

Improved flood risk modelling across spatial and temporal scales depends upon advances in science, data, computation and visualisation. The strength of the WRN flood programme is driven by member institutions' commitment to fundamental research to gain greater understanding of pluvial, riverine, storm surge and groundwater hazard and how they combine with landscape and exposure to create flood risk and losses. This work underpins the Network's tools and risk management solutions.

Latest on Flood

  • On the sampling distribution of Allan factor estimator for a homogeneous Poisson process and its use to test inhomogeneities at multiple scales

    Date: Mar 01, 2013 | Type: Paper | Journal: Physica A | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Francesco Serinaldi, Chris G. Kilsby
    Fields:

    Summary: The Allan factor (AF) is a statistic widely used to assess if the rate of occurrences of an event tends to cluster and show persistence in a range of space and/or time scales. This study investigates the sampling distribution function of the AF estimator when the underlying process is homogeneous Poissonian.

    Hurricane Sandy’s Storm Surge and the National Flood Insurance Program

    Date: Nov 30, 2012 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Carolyn Kousky
    Fields:

    Summary: Flood Insurance Coverage in New York and New Jersey

    Read More about this publication ›

    Wharton Flood Report Briefing

    Date: Oct 04, 2012 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Jeffrey Czajkowski & Vaughn Jensen
    Fields:

    Summary: Assessing the Feasibility of U.S. Private Market Flood Insurance - a study by WRN partner Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center.

    Read More about this publication ›

    A modular class of multisite monthly rainfall generators for water resource management and impact studies

    Date: Sep 25, 2012 | Type: Article | Journal: Journal of Hydrology | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Francesco Serinaldi, Chris G. Kilsby
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: This study introduces a class of stochastic multisite monthly rainfall generators devised for application in water resources management problems, such as the sensitivity analysis of droughts and extreme rainfall scenarios under external climatic and non climatic forcing mechanisms.

    Read More about this publication ›

    A novel approach, using regional climate model, to derive present and future IDF curves for data scarce sites

    Date: Aug 01, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Liew, S.C., Liong, S.Y., and Raghavan, S.
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: The aims of the present study are twofold. First, the study proposes an approach in the development of IDF curves for places where short or no station data are available. Secondly, similar analyses for the future IDF curves are presented from a regional climate model (RCM) which downscales a general circulation model - ECHAM5 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario

    Read More about this publication ›

    Integrating remote sensing data with flood inundation models: how far have we got?

    Date: Aug 01, 2012 | Type: Paper |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Mason, D.C., Davenport, I.J., Neal, J.C., Schumann, G.J.-P., and Bates, P.D.
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: The use of remote sensing data has allowed a significant breakthrough to be made in flood inundation modelling. This paper examines how far we have now come in our ability to use the improvements in available data to integrate into flood models.

    Read More about this publication ›

    Near Real-Time Flood Detection in Urban and Rural Areas Using High-Resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar Images

    Date: Aug 01, 2012 | Type: Paper |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Mason, D.C., Davenport, I.J., Neal, J.C., Schumann, G.J.-P., and Bates, P.D.
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: A near real-time flood detection algorithm giving a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding in both urban and rural areas, and capable of working during night-time and day-time even if cloud was present, could be a useful tool for operational flood relief management. The paper describes an automatic algorithm using high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data that builds on existing approaches, including the use of image segmentation techniques prior to object classification to cope with the very large number of pixels in these scenes.

    Read More about this publication ›

    How much physical complexity is needed to model flood inundation?

    Date: Aug 01, 2012 | Type: Paper |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Mason, D.C., Davenport, I.J., Neal, J.C., Schumann, G.J.-P., and Bates, P.D.
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: Two-dimensional flood inundation models are widely used tools for flood hazard mapping and an essential component of statutory flood risk management guidelines in many countries. Yet, we still do not know how much physical complexity a flood inundation model needs for a given problem...

    Read More about this publication ›

    Investigation of Possible Usage of SRTM for Ciliwung River Modeling

    Date: Jul 02, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Doan, C. D., Dao, A. T, Liong, S. Y., Sanders, R., Liu, J., and Fewtrell, T.
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: In river modeling, it is very important to obtain river system geometric data such as river course and river cross sections. It is relatively not difficult to acquire these data of high quality in developed countries. However, for developing countries, it is often quite a challenge. Alternative sources of data, therefore, need to be explored so that the river modeling can still be developed with reasonable accuracy.

    Read More about this publication ›

    Development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves: Incorporating Climate Change Projection

    Date: Jul 02, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Liew, S. C, Raghavan, S. , Liong, S. Y, Sanders, R.
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: This study shows the development of future Intensity-Duration-Frequency IDF curves, for a site, resulting from a regional climate model (RCM) which downscales a general circulation model (GCM) of A2 emission scenario.

    Read More about this publication ›

    EGU 2012 - Global Flood Model

    Date: Apr 25, 2012 | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Tim Fewtrell - deleted P. Williams, M. Huddelston, G. Michel, S. Thompson, K. Heynert, C. Pickering, I. Abbott Donnelly, T. Fewtrell, H. Galy, F. Sperna Weiland, H. Winsemius, A. Weerts, S. Nixon, P. Davies, and D. Schiferli
    Fields:

    Summary: A Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, Esri, Deltares and IBM...

    Read More about this publication ›

    Analyses of extreme flooding in Austria over the period 1951–2006

    Date: Apr 19, 2011 | Journal: International Journal of Climatology | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Gabriele Villarini, James A. Smith, Francesco Serinaldi, Alexandros A. Ntelekos, Ulrich Schwarz
    Fields:

    Summary: Analyses of extreme flooding in Austria is performed using daily discharge time series from 27 stations over the period 1951-2006. The main research questions revolve around: (1) temporal non-stationarities in the flood record, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak records, and (3) relation between magnitude and frequency of flooding and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

    Read More about this publication ›

    Preserving the dominant physical processes in a lumped hydrological model

    Date: Dec 01, 2010 | Type: Paper | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Ezio Todini and Mario Martina. Z. Liu
    Fields: Flood - Modelling

    Summary:

    Read More about this publication ›

    A stochastic model for the spatial‐temporal simulation of nonhomogeneous rainfall occurrence and amounts

    Date: Nov 02, 2010 | Type: Paper | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Burton, A., H. J. Fowler, C. G. Kilsby, and P. E. O’Connell (2010)
    Fields: Flood - Rainfall Modelling

    Summary: The nonhomogeneous spatial activation of raincells (NSAR) model is presented which provides a continuous spatial‐temporal stochastic simulation of rainfall exhibiting spatial nonstationarity in both amounts and occurrence.

    Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event

    Date: Jun 01, 2010 | Type: Paper | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Man-made & Liability Risks
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: M. S. Horritt, P. D. Bates, T. J. Fewtrell, D. C. Mason, M. D. Wilson
    Fields: Flood - UK Flood Modelling Techniques

    Summary: The performance of a two-dimensional numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with global positioning system surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood.

    Read More about this publication ›

    Near real‐time flood wave approximation on large rivers

    Date: May 18, 2010 | Type: Paper | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Paul Bates G. Schumann, G. Di Baldassarre, D. Alsdorf.
    Fields: Flood - Remote Sensing

    Summary: This paper investigates the potential of low‐cost spaceborne data to approximate longitudinal surface profiles during flood events on large rivers.

    Read More about this publication ›

    Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk

    Date: Mar 23, 2010 | Type: Article | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: H. J. Fowler and R. L. Wilby
    Fields: Flood - Understanding Trends in Precipitation Extremes through Regionla Climate Modelling

    Summary: There is growing evidence of coherent, global patterns of change in annual precipitation and runoff with high latitudes experiencing increases consistent with climate model projections. This paper describes a methodology for estimating detection times for changes in seasonal precipitation extremes.

    A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling

    Date: Mar 02, 2010 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Paul D. Bates, Matthew S. Horritt, Timothy J. Fewtrell
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: This paper describes the development of a new set of equations derived from 1D shallow water theory for use in 2D storage cell inundation models where flows in the x and y Cartesian directions are decoupled. The new equations are likely to find widespread application in many types of flood inundation modelling and should provide a useful additional tool, alongside more established model formulations, for a variety of flood risk management studies

    Read More about this publication ›

    Flash flood hydrology in karstic terrain: Flumineddu Canyon, central-east Sardinia

    Date: Mar 01, 2010 | Type: Paper | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Mario Martina Jo De Waele, Mario L.V. Martina, Laura Sanna, Salvatore Cabras, Q. Antonio Cossu
    Fields: Flood

    Summary:

    Radar analyses of extreme rainfall and flooding in urban drainage basins

    Date: Nov 29, 2009 | Type: Article |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Luciana Cunha James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, Paula Sturdevant-Rees and Witold F. Krajewski
    Fields: Hydrological

    Summary: In this study, we use observations from two WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) weather radars, a dense network of rain gages, and a network of stream gages to examine: (1) spacetime variability of extreme flood-producing rainfall, (2) radar rainfall estimation for extreme rain events, and (3) heterogeneous flood response to extreme rainfall in urban drainage basins.

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As economic, social and environmental uncertainties increase, institutions and populations seek greater resilience to support sustainable growth. Science and insurance lay at the heart of understanding, managing and sharing these risks, building more secure futures at local and global scales.

The Willis Research Network (WRN) operates across the full spectrum of risk from natural catastrophe, to legal liability, financial and security issues linked across driving themes: Resilience, Security & Sustainable Growth; Managing Extremes; Insurance & Risk Management and Mastering the Modelled World.

All Members and activities are united by a common aim: improving resilience by integrating first class science into operational and financial decision-making across public and private institutions.

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Fast Facts

  • The WRN was formed in September 2006 to support leading academic research into extreme events, with a specific focus on responding to the challenges faced by businesses, insurers and governments
  • The WRN's membership spans the globe, counting more than 50 world-class universities, scientific research organisations and public policy institutions
  • Collectively, our members have published more than 100 papers in leading scientific journals
  • Nearly all of the WRN's research is freely available to the public and can be downloaded on our website

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