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Earthquake

The WRN earthquake related activities are anchored by the Network's support of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) programme, a major five year initiative between governments, insurers and public science institutions to produce a global and consistent model of earthquake risk.

Willis is a founder sponsor of GEM and Network member scientists occupy senior positions on GEM bodies and work programmes. Full details of GEM may be found at www.globalquakemodel.org.

In addition to the previous, Willis and WRN member scientists have collaborated on national earthquake risk models for many years, this work pre-dated the formation of the WRN. The WRN continues to develop regional earthquake models and risk assessment programmes.

Latest on Earthquake

  • Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project

    Date: Feb 03, 2014 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Bijan Khazai, Christopher Burton, Christopher Power and James E. Daniell
    Fields: GEM

    Summary: Central to the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is the development of state-of-the-art modeling capabilities that can be used worldwide for the assessment and communication of seismic risk. For a holistic evaluation of the consequences of earthquake impacts and loss, the Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project is focusing on the development of metrics, methods, and OpenSource software tools for the assessment of seismic risk and impact potential beyond the estimation of direct physical impacts and loss of life.

    Read More about this publication ›

    The use of macroseismic intensity as a basis for empirical vulnerability assessment

    Date: Aug 28, 2013 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›
    Conf: VEESD |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: R. Foulser-Piggott, R. Spence
    Fields: Earthquake, macroseismic intensity, vulnerability, building damage, collapse, database.

    Summary: Macroseismic intensity has been extensively used as a basis for the development of empirical vulnerability relationships, identifying the probability of a given damage state for a particular building class as a function of ground shaking intensity. There are clearly problems in treating intensity and the building damage caused as independent variables, since intensity assignment at higher intensity levels is to a large extent based on observed building damage.

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    Extending EMS-98 for more convenient application outside Europe I: Review of field experience using EMS-98

    Date: Aug 28, 2013 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›
    Conf: VEESD |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: R. Foulser-Piggott, R. Spence
    Fields: Earthquake, macroseismic intensity, EMS-98, damage assessment, vulnerability.

    Summary: A review of field experience using EMS-98 has been conducted as the first stage in a project to modify the current version of EMS-98, for Intensity levels greater than VI, to make the scale more internationally applicable.

    Read More about this publication ›

    Extending EMS-98 for more convenient application outside Europe II: Development of the International Macroseismic Scale

    Date: Aug 28, 2013 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›
    Conf: VEESD |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: R. Foulser-Piggott, R. Spence
    Fields: Earthquake, macroseismic intensity, EMS-98, damage assessment, vulnerability.

    Summary: Following the detailed review of field use experience of EMS-98 presented in Paper I: Review of field experience using EMS-98, this paper focuses on proposing modifications to the current version of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) to make it more specifically applicable to areas outside Europe with significantly different building stocks.

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    National level Socio-Economic Vulnerability Database – Data Collection, Harmonisation and Analysis

    Date: Jun 28, 2013 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Christopher Power, James Daniell, Bijan Khazai, Chris Burton, Christoph Oberacker
    Fields: GEM

    Summary: Report produced in the context of the Social vulnerability and integrated risk initiative of GEM

    Read More about this publication ›

    The use of remote sensing for building damage assessment: the GEOCAN study and its validation.

    Date: Jun 16, 2013 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Roxane Foulser-Piggott, Robin Spence and Daniel Brown
    Fields: Earthquake

    Summary: The report discusses methods for the application of remote sensing in post-earthquake damage assessment, and reports on a GEOCAN crowd-sourcing study following the 22.2.2011 Christchurch event, and its validation using field studies. It describes the principal datasets used, discusses in detail the problems of validation, and considers the extent of omission and commission errors. It is clear that although commission errors in the GEOCAN damage estimation are low, there are significant omission errors; the extent of these and the factors affecting the extent of omission errors are analysed with a decision model. Recommendations to improve the performance of GEOCAN in subsequent deployments are made.

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    Damaging Earthquakes Database 2012 – The Year in Review

    Date: Jan 04, 2013 | Type: Article | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: James Daniell and Armand Vervaeck
    Fields:

    Summary: The purpose of this report is to present the damaging earthquakes in the year 2012 around the world that were entered into the CATDAT Damaging Earthquake Database (a historical global catastrophe database compiled by our WRN partners CEDIM and KIT amongst others) in terms of their socio‐economic effects.

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    Trimming the UCERF2 Hazard Logic Tree

    Date: Oct 10, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Keith A. Porter, Edward H. Field, and Kevin Milner
    Fields: Earthquake

    Summary: Exposures with very large sums insured, such as those dealt through Facultative reinsurance, require particular studies when assessing their seismic risk. A more accurate risk assessment may be translated in better reinsurance pricing due to the consideration of a wider range of uncertainties. A thorough hazard analysis requires a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) which in some cases may be computationally demanding and time consuming to set up.

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    Seismic Risk Assessment for the Prioritization of High Seismic Risk Provinces in Turkey

    Date: Apr 30, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Mine B. Demircioglu, Karin Sesetyan, and Mustafa Erdik
    Fields: Seismic Risk, Turkey, Prioritization

    Summary: The aim of the present study is the assessment of the earthquake risk in Turkey to constitute the basis for the risk prioritization of provinces.

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    Incorporation of the spatial correlation of Arias intensity within Earthquake Loss Estimation

    Date: May 24, 2010 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Peter Stafford Roxane Foulser-Piggott
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: In this paper, a model for the spatial correlation of Arias intensity is proposed.

    What We Know about Demand Surge

    Date: Jan 29, 2010 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›
    Journal: Structural Engineering and Structural Mechanics |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Anna H. Olsen, Keith A. Porter
    Fields:

    Summary: Demand surge is generally understood to be an economic process in which the cost to repair damage to buildings and other infrastructure in large natural disasters is significantly greater than the cost to repair the same damage in a smaller disaster. It is believed to have occurred in several large natural disasters, resulting in additional repair costs of 20% or more. Thus, it is of particular interest to property insurers and insurance regulators.

    Predicting the Duration of Earthquake Ground Motion

    Date: Dec 01, 2009 | Type: Article |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Julian Bommer and Peter Stafford. John E. Alarcon
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: This article is an update and extension of the study of Kempton and Stewart (2006), which presented equations for the prediction of significant duration derived from the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) dataset. this article explores alternative functional forms for such equations and additionally presents equations for the prediction of other definitions of duration.

    Ground-motion prediction equations for Europe

    Date: May 10, 2009 | Type: Paper |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Julian Bommer and Peter Stafford. Sinan Akkar
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: Following a very brief overview of the historical development of ground-motion recording and prediction in Europe, the paper summarises the current state-of-the-art in terms of regional prediction equations. The paper then goes on to explore the issue of regional variations in earthquake ground-motion and challenges the frequently-made assumption that equations specific to individual countries or regions are required.

    Empirical equations for the prediction of cycles of earthquake ground motion

    Date: May 03, 2009 | Type: Article |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Julian Bommer and Peter Stafford.
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: In this study, the strong-motion data base assembled in the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) project is used to derive equations for two different measures of the effective numbers of cycles of ground motion as functions of magnitude, distance, and site classification.

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis - United Arab Emirates

    Date: Mar 01, 2009 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Julian Bommer and Peter Stafford. G. Aldama-Bustos, C.H. Fenton
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: The purpose of this study is to obtain a reliable estimate of the seismic hazard in the Emirates, expressed as uniform hazard spectra (UHS) on rock sites in three key cities in the country: Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ra's Al Khaymah.

    Seismic Reliability of Lifeline Networks

    Date: Feb 23, 2009 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Charles Scawthorn and Mohammad Javanbarg. J. Kiyono, and Y. Ono
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: Paper submitted to to ASCE conference (TCLEE 2009) to be held in Oakland in June 2009. A heuristic minimal path sets method for analysing seismic reliability of lifeline networks is proposed.

    A new approach to simulating earthquake ground motion

    Date: Jan 19, 2009 | Type: Article |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Peter Stafford S. Sgobba and G.C. Marano
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: The primary purpose of this article is to offer a new envelope function that represents the first component of a full non-stationary stochastic approach to accelerogram generation.

    Globalizing quake information

    Date: Dec 01, 2008 | Type: Article |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors:
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: Destruction from earthquakes continues to threaten poor and wealthy nations alike. The Global Earthquake Model is a potentially important step towards providing risk information on a worldwide basis, using a unifi ed standard.

    The ShakeOut Scenario: a Hypothetical MW7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

    Date: Dec 01, 2008 | Type: Paper |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Charles Scawthorn and Keith Porter.
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: A summary of the most extensive earthquake planning scenario ever created for the United States

    Seismic Reliability Assessment of Water Supply Systems

    Date: Nov 03, 2008 | Type: Paper |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Mohammad Javanbarg S. Takada, Emeritus Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Kobe University
    Fields: Seismic

    Summary: This study develops a comprehensive seismic reliability model for serviceability assessment of water supply systems.

About WRN

As economic, social and environmental uncertainties increase, institutions and populations seek greater resilience to support sustainable growth. Science and insurance lay at the heart of understanding, managing and sharing these risks, building more secure futures at local and global scales.

The Willis Research Network (WRN) operates across the full spectrum of risk from natural catastrophe, to legal liability, financial and security issues linked across driving themes: Resilience, Security & Sustainable Growth; Managing Extremes; Insurance & Risk Management and Mastering the Modelled World.

All Members and activities are united by a common aim: improving resilience by integrating first class science into operational and financial decision-making across public and private institutions.

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  • The WRN was formed in September 2006 to support leading academic research into extreme events, with a specific focus on responding to the challenges faced by businesses, insurers and governments
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