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Natural Hazard & Risk

Around half of the world’s $200 billion annual global reinsurance premiums are spent on protection against natural hazards; the solvency capital charge for most non-life insurance companies under regulatory frameworks is strongly influenced by exposures to natural catastrophe risk and insurance companies are sensitive to their relative financial and customer performance when natural disasters occur. In response to this importance, natural hazards and risk are a significant priority for the Willis Research Network.

The WRN Natural Hazard and Risk programme identifies and quantifies risks to exposed assets and populations at global and local scales. These assessments are incorporated into financial and operational decision support systems including catastrophe risk and internal economic capital models within insurance companies. This works informs decisions on risk retention, diversification and transfer strategy, including reinsurance transactions.

The Research Programme assesses the distribution, frequency and intensity of extremes across the full range hydro-meteorological and geo hazards; the vulnerabilities of exposed assets and populations and their financial impact.

Latest on Natural Hazard & Risk

  • A first analysis of the potential landslide distribution from the Iran earthquake

    Date: Apr 18, 2013 | Type: Article | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Other Perils

    Authors: Rob Parker and Dave Petley
    Fields: Landslide

    Summary: The Mw = 7.8 earthquake in early April in Iran was the largest event in that country for about 50 years. Fortunately, the depth of the earthquake (82 km) and the low population density in the affected areas meant that loss of life was low for an event of this size

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    Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change

    Date: Mar 19, 2013 | Type: Paper | Journal: Climate Dynamics | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: Greg Holland, Cindy L. Bruyère
    Fields:

    Summary: Recent community consensus has concluded that it is likely that the frequency of intense hurricanes will increase with future anthropogenic climate change. IPCC (2007) also concluded that the current ‘warming of the climate system is unequivocal’. Yet IPCC (2012) concluded that ‘There is low confidence in any observed long-term increases in tropical cyclone activity’, based largely on potential errors in the observed data. Here we investigate this apparent anomaly and find that there has been an increase in the proportion of intense hurricanes relative to all hurricanes, and that is strongly related to an Anthropogenic Climate Change Index (ACCI).

    On the sampling distribution of Allan factor estimator for a homogeneous Poisson process and its use to test inhomogeneities at multiple scales

    Date: Mar 01, 2013 | Type: Paper | Journal: Physica A | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Francesco Serinaldi, Chris G. Kilsby
    Fields:

    Summary: The Allan factor (AF) is a statistic widely used to assess if the rate of occurrences of an event tends to cluster and show persistence in a range of space and/or time scales. This study investigates the sampling distribution function of the AF estimator when the underlying process is homogeneous Poissonian.

    Characterizing a Building Class via Key Features and Index Buildings for Class-Level Vulnerability Functions

    Date: Feb 18, 2013 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›
    Conf: International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability (ICOSSAR) |

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Exposure, Vulnerability & Physical Impacts

    Authors: K. Porter, I.H. Cho
    Fields: Vulnerability

    Summary: The abstract summarizes a procedure for creating an analytically derived seismic vulnerability function using 2nd-generation performance-based earthquake engineering at practical cost, with mathematical rigor, reflecting all of the most-important variability within the class.

    Post-Sandy: Recovering, Repairing and Rebuilding

    Date: Jan 29, 2013 | Type: Paper | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: IBHS
    Fields:

    Summary: Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS), a WRN partner released three new papers focusing on building codes in New York and New Jersey; guidance for repairing and rebuilding residential and commercial structures post-Sandy; and business protection lessons learned from Sandy. These papers contain valuable information related to building codes in New York and New Jersey and highlights the importance of building mitigation measures to wind and flood.

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    Damaging Earthquakes Database 2012 – The Year in Review

    Date: Jan 04, 2013 | Type: Article | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: James Daniell and Armand Vervaeck
    Fields:

    Summary: The purpose of this report is to present the damaging earthquakes in the year 2012 around the world that were entered into the CATDAT Damaging Earthquake Database (a historical global catastrophe database compiled by our WRN partners CEDIM and KIT amongst others) in terms of their socio‐economic effects.

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    WRN Bulletin: Hurricane Sandy Damage Survey Report

    Date: Dec 10, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: Dr. Habil. Michael Kunz & Prasad Gunturi
    Fields:

    Summary: Sandy was a storm system with special meteorological characteristics causing widespread damage from the Caribbean to the U.S. East Coast. At the U.S. coast, especially in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, Sandy resulted in a relatively high death toll compared to historic events. Critical infrastructure failures (electricity, transportation) are expected to lead to a high amount of indirect damages.

    Hurricane Sandy’s Storm Surge and the National Flood Insurance Program

    Date: Nov 30, 2012 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Carolyn Kousky
    Fields:

    Summary: Flood Insurance Coverage in New York and New Jersey

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    CEDIM FDA-Report on Hurricane Sandy Sandy 22-30 October

    Date: Nov 08, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: Chris Kilsby and Jim Hall. Bernhard Mühr. Michael Kunz, Tina Kunz -Plapp, James Daniell, Bijan Khazai, Marjorie Vannieuwenhuyse, Tina Comes, Florian Elmer, Kai Schröter, Adrian Leyser, Christian Lucas, Joachim Fohringer, Thomas Münzberg, Werner Trieselmann, Jochen Zschau
    Fields:

    Summary: Hurricane Sandy was a storm system with special meteorlogical characteristics. It caused widespread damage from the Caribbean to the U.S. East Coast.

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    Cultivating C4 crops in a changing climate: sugarcane in Ghana

    Date: Nov 02, 2012 | Type: Paper | Journal: Environmental Research Letters | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Natural Disasters & Climate Adapation

    Authors: Emily Black, Pier Luigi Vidale, Anne Verhoef,Santiago Vianna Cuadra, Tom Osborne and Catherine Van den Hoof
    Fields:

    Summary: As fossil fuel prices increase, energy crops will become an increasingly lucrative option for farmers. Exploring the long-term environmental consequences of such cultivation is therefore a high priority. This paper applies a process-based crop model to sugarcane in Ghana (where cultivation is planned), and the São Paulo region of Brazil (which has a well-established sugarcane industry) to understand the impact this could have in areas of vulnerable water resource and long term environmental sustainability

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    Assessing Tropical Cyclone Damage

    Date: Nov 01, 2012 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: James Done, Jeffrey Czajkowski
    Fields: Atmospheric

    Summary: This study provides new insights into the drivers of hurricane losses that have implications for existing approaches to hurricane loss modeling.

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    Impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on European Windstorms

    Date: Oct 31, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: Prof David B. Stephenson; Dr. Leon Hermanson; Dr Angelika Werner
    Fields:

    Summary: A two page paper looking at the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on European Windstorms

    Trimming the UCERF2 Hazard Logic Tree

    Date: Oct 10, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Earthquake

    Authors: Keith A. Porter, Edward H. Field, and Kevin Milner
    Fields: Earthquake

    Summary: Exposures with very large sums insured, such as those dealt through Facultative reinsurance, require particular studies when assessing their seismic risk. A more accurate risk assessment may be translated in better reinsurance pricing due to the consideration of a wider range of uncertainties. A thorough hazard analysis requires a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) which in some cases may be computationally demanding and time consuming to set up.

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    Wharton Flood Report Briefing

    Date: Oct 04, 2012 | Type: Article | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Jeffrey Czajkowski & Vaughn Jensen
    Fields:

    Summary: Assessing the Feasibility of U.S. Private Market Flood Insurance - a study by WRN partner Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center.

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    A modular class of multisite monthly rainfall generators for water resource management and impact studies

    Date: Sep 25, 2012 | Type: Article | Journal: Journal of Hydrology | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Francesco Serinaldi, Chris G. Kilsby
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: This study introduces a class of stochastic multisite monthly rainfall generators devised for application in water resources management problems, such as the sensitivity analysis of droughts and extreme rainfall scenarios under external climatic and non climatic forcing mechanisms.

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    Interactions between the physical soil environment and a horizontal ground coupled heat pump, for a domestic site in the UK

    Date: Aug 31, 2012 | Type: Paper | Journal: Renewable Energy, Volume 44, August 2012 | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Science & Innovation

    Authors: Raquel Garcia Gonzaleza, Anne Verhoefa, Pier Luigi Vidaleb, Bruce Maina, Guogui Ganc, Yupeng Wuc
    Fields:

    Summary: There is currently an increased interest of Government and Industry in the UK, as well as at the European Community level and International Agencies (i.e. Department of Energy, American International Energy Agency), to improve the performance and uptake of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHP), in order to meet the 2020 renewable energy target. This is the first detailed mechanistic study conducted in the UK with the aim to understand the interactions between the soil, horizontal heat exchangers and the aboveground environment.

    Read More about this publication ›

    Counting the coming storms

    Date: Aug 30, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: Ed Hawkins and Pier Luigi Vidale
    Fields:

    Summary: Tropical Atlantic storms impact the lives of many thousands of people each year. A study describes how different future anthropogenic emission pathways may change the frequency of these storms.

    An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model

    Date: Aug 21, 2012 | Type: Paper | Journal: International Journal of Climatology | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Natural Disasters & Climate Adapation

    Authors: Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes, Leonard C. Shaffrey, Pier Luigi Vidale, Nigel W. Arnell
    Fields:

    Summary: This paper compares the characteristics of synthetic European droughts generated by the HiGEM1 coupled climate model run with present day atmospheric composition with observed drought events extracted from the CRU TS3 data set.

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    Investigating Global Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hierarchy of AGCMs: The Role of Model Resolution

    Date: Aug 01, 2012 | Type: Paper | Journal: Journal of Climate | Ext. Link: Click Here ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Tropical Cyclones

    Authors: J. Strachan, P.L. Vidale, K.I. Hodges, MJ Roberts, and M.E. Demory,
    Fields:

    Summary: Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive environmental hazards, with intense, landfalling storms leading to significant socioeconomic impacts. Tropical cyclones account for four of the five most costly insurance losses from natural disasters over the period 1950 to 2009 (Munich Re, 2010), with U S. hurricanes responsible for the highest natural catastrophe insurance losses. It is therefore essential that risk assessment takes into account our best understanding of how the naturally and anthropogenically varying climate system modulates storm behaviour

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    A novel approach, using regional climate model, to derive present and future IDF curves for data scarce sites

    Date: Aug 01, 2012 | Type: Paper | Attachment: Download File ›

    Pillar: Natural Hazard & Risk
    Hub: Flood

    Authors: Liew, S.C., Liong, S.Y., and Raghavan, S.
    Fields: Flood

    Summary: The aims of the present study are twofold. First, the study proposes an approach in the development of IDF curves for places where short or no station data are available. Secondly, similar analyses for the future IDF curves are presented from a regional climate model (RCM) which downscales a general circulation model - ECHAM5 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario

    Read More about this publication ›

About WRN

As economic, social and environmental uncertainties increase, institutions and populations seek greater resilience to support sustainable growth. Science and insurance lay at the heart of understanding, managing and sharing these risks, building more secure futures at local and global scales.

The Willis Research Network (WRN) operates across the full spectrum of risk from natural catastrophe, to legal liability, financial and security issues linked across driving themes: Resilience, Security & Sustainable Growth; Managing Extremes; Insurance & Risk Management and Mastering the Modelled World.

All Members and activities are united by a common aim: improving resilience by integrating first class science into operational and financial decision-making across public and private institutions.

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Fast Facts

  • The WRN was formed in September 2006 to support leading academic research into extreme events, with a specific focus on responding to the challenges faced by businesses, insurers and governments
  • The WRN's membership spans the globe, counting more than 50 world-class universities, scientific research organisations and public policy institutions
  • Collectively, our members have published more than 100 papers in leading scientific journals
  • Nearly all of the WRN's research is freely available to the public and can be downloaded on our website

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