The Impact on Federal Spending of Allowing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act to Expire
Author(s): Tom LaTourrette, Noreen Clancy
Summary: Congress enacted the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) in 2002, in response to terrorism insurance becoming unavailable or, when offered, extremely costly in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The law creates an incentive for a functioning private terrorism insurance market by providing a government reinsurance backstop for catastrophic terrorist attack losses. Extended first in 2005 and again in 2007, TRIA is set to expire at the end of 2014, and Congress is again considering the appropriate government role in terrorism insurance markets.
Technology: Fight floods on a global scale
Author(s): Guy J.-P. Schumann, Paul D. Bates, Jeffrey C. Neal & Konstantinos M. Andreadis
Summary: Bristol and NASA issue call for international co-operation on global-scale flood model
National Security Perspectives on Terrorism Risk Insurance in the United States
Author(s): Henry H. Willis, Omar Al-Shahery
Field(s): Community Resilience, Terrorism Risk Insurance Act Of 2002, Terrorism Risk Management, United State
Summary: Congress enacted the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) in 2002, in response to terrorism insurance becoming unavailable or, when offered, extremely costly in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The law provides a government reinsurance backstop in the case of a terrorist attack by providing mechanisms for avoiding an immediate drawdown of capital for insured losses or possibly covering the most extreme losses. Extended first in 2005 and again in 2007, TRIA is set to expire at the end of 2014, and Congress is again reconsidering the appropriate government role in terrorism insurance markets. This policy brief examines the potential national security implications of allowing TRIA to expire. Examining the history of terrorism in the United States since the passage of TRIA and reviewing counterterrorism studies, the authors find that terrorism remains a real national security threat, but one that is very difficult for insurers to model the risk of. They also find that terrorism risk insurance can contribute to making communities more resilient to terrorism events, so, to the extent that terrorism insurance is more available with TRIA than without it, renewing the legislation would contribute to improved national security.
Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project
Author(s): Bijan Khazai, Christopher Burton, Christopher Power and James E. Daniell
Summary: Central to the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is the development of state-of-the-art modeling capabilities that can be used worldwide for the assessment and communication of seismic risk. For a holistic evaluation of the consequences of earthquake impacts and loss, the Social Vulnerability and Integrated Risk Project is focusing on the development of metrics, methods, and OpenSource software tools for the assessment of seismic risk and impact potential beyond the estimation of direct physical impacts and loss of life.
High resolution global climate modelling; the UPSCALE project, a large simulation campaign
Author(s): M. S. Mizielinski, M. J. Roberts, P. L. Vidale, R. Schiemann, M.-E. Demory, J. Strachan, et al.
Field(s): Hurricanes, Tropical cyclones, Climate change, Climate models, Coupled models
Summary: The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project constructed and ran an ensemble of HadGEM3 (Hadley centre Global Environment Model 3) atmosphere-only global climate simulations over the period 1985–2011, at resolutions of N512 (25 km), N216 (60 km) and N96 (130 km) as used in current global weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate modelling respectively. Alongside these present climate simulations a parallel ensemble looking at extremes of future climate was run, using a time-slice methodology to consider conditions at the end of this century.
Improved evaporative flux partitioning and carbon flux in the land surface model JULES: Impact on the simulation of land surface processes in temperate Europe
Author(s): Catherine Van den Hoof, Pier Luigi Vidale, Anne Verhoef, Caroline Vincke
Field(s): Eddy fluxes measurements; Europe; Evaporative flux partitioning; Land surface model; 2003 heat wave
Summary: The primary role of land surface models embedded in climate models is to partition surface available energy into upwards, radiative, sensible and latent heat fluxes. Partitioning of evapotranspiration, ET, is of fundamental importance: as a major component of the total surface latent heat flux, ET affects the simulated surface water balance, and related energy balance, and consequently the feedbacks with the atmosphere. In this context it is also crucial to credibly represent the CO2 exchange between ecosystems and their environment. In this study, JULES, the land surface model used in UK weather and climate models, has been evaluated for temperate Europe. Compared to eddy covariance flux measurements, the CO2 uptake by the ecosystem is underestimated and the ET overestimated
Spatial and temporal modeling of radar rainfall uncertainties
Author(s): Gabriele Villarini, Bong-Chul Seo, Francesco Serinaldi, Witold F. Krajewskia
Field(s): Weather radar; Rainfall; Uncertainty; Space–time modeling; NEXRAD
Summary: It is widely acknowledged that radar-based estimates of rainfall are affected by uncertainties (e.g., mis-calibration, beam blockage, anomalous propagation, and ground clutter) which are both systematic and random in nature. Improving the characterization of these errors would yield better understanding and interpretations of results from studies in which these estimates are used as inputs (e.g., hydrologic modeling) or initial conditions (e.g., rainfall forecasting).
The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution
Author(s): R. Schiemann, M.-E. Demory, M. S. Mizielinski, M. J. Roberts, L. C. Shaffrey, J. Strachan, P. L. Vidale
Field(s): Precipitation Climate model bias Resolution GCM Boundary conditions Maritime Continent Walker circulation Coastal tiling
Summary: The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model. Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to about 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation.
Rainfall extremes: Toward reconciliation after the battle of distributions
Author(s): Francesco Serinaldi, Chris G. Kilsby
Field(s): extreme events;precipitation;time series analysis;peak-over-threshold analysis;heavy tail behavior
Summary: This study attempts to reconcile the conflicting results reported in the literature concerning the behavior of peak-over-threshold (POT) daily rainfall extremes and their distribution.
Determining tropical cyclone inland flooding loss on a large scale through a new flood peak ratio-based methodology
Author(s): Jeffrey Czajkowski, Gabriele Villarini, Erwann Michel-Kerjan and James A Smith
Summary: In recent years, the United States has been severely affected by numerous tropical cyclones (TCs) which have caused massive damages. While media attention mainly focuses on coastal losses from storm surge, these TCs have inflicted significant devastation inland as well. Yet, little is known about the relationship between TC-related inland flooding and economic losses.
The Insurance Industry Must Champion Sustainability
Date: Dec 01, 2013
Journal: Thunderbird International Business Review Vol. 55, No. 6 November/December 2013
Pillar: Core Technologies & Methods
Hub: Insurance & Sustainable Business
Attachment: Download File ›
Author(s): Matthew I. Shea, James W. Hutchin
Summary: The insurance industry is uniquely placed in our economies as a private market mechanism for the sharing of risk, with the global pooling of what would be risks otherwise carried by individuals estimated at US$400 trillion (Insurance Working Group of the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative, 2009). As risk pooling is instrumental for the efficient functioning of economies and societies, the insurance industry is understandably an object of regulation and public policy. Furthermore, as the risk pooling afforded is possible only with investors’ willingness to put capital at risk, profits are necessary for its continued existence.
Can Sustainability be a Source of Competitive Advantage in the Insurance Industry?
Author(s): Matthew Shea and James Hutchin
Summary: We wish to determine if insurers can acquire a competitive advantage if they integrate insureds’ sustainability performance into their underwriting models. Such a finding has profound implications for the insurance industry and the greater social and economic activity it drives.
Surface water connectivity dynamics of a large scale extreme flood
Author(s): Mark A. Trigg, Katerina Michaelides, Jeffrey C. Neal, Paul D. Bates
Field(s): Geostatistical connectivity; Floodplain dynamics; 2011 Bangkok; Thailand; MODIS
Summary: •Uses the MODIS surface water product observations of the 2011 Bangkok flood. •A data gap filling method is developed to better preserve the dynamics of the event. •We quantify surface water connectivity geostatistically to give new flood insights. •There is a clear structure to the connectivity of the event through time and space. •Changes and thresholds in the connectivity are linked to major flood mechanisms.
Response of Tropical Cyclones to Idealized Climate Change Experiments in a Global High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model
Author(s): Bell, Ray, Jane Strachan, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin Hodges, Malcolm Roberts
Field(s): Hurricanes, Tropical cyclones, Climate change, Climate models, Coupled models
Summary: The authors present an assessment of how tropical cyclone activity might change owing to the influence of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, using the U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) with N144 resolution (~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean).
As the Wind Blows? Understanding Hurricane Damages at the Local Level Through a Case Study Analysis
Summary: An understanding of the potential drivers of local scale hurricane losses is developed through a case study analysis. Two recent Category Three US landfalling hurricanes (Ivan in 2004 and Dennis in 2005) are analyzed that, although similar in terms of maximum wind speed at their proximate coastal landfall locations, caused vastly different loss amounts.
Wharton Risk Management REVIEW
Author(s): Wharton Risk Management and Decision Process Center
Summary: In this newsletter... Flood Resilience Research at Wharton Addressing Affordability in the National Flood Insurance Program Managing Climate Change through Insurance Tropical Cyclones — New Quantification Methods - by Jeff Czajkowski, Willis Research Network Fellow Using Eye-Tracking to Study Responses to Hurricane Maps South Florida Water, Sustainability, and Climate Project The Case for a Modified Government-Backed Terrorism Insurance Program What Affects Tenant Demand for Energy Efficient Buildings? Effective Corporate Leadership in Cat Risk Management Lessons from the Chilean Earthquake of 2010
On the relationship between the index of dispersion and Allan factor and their power for testing the Poisson assumption
Author(s): Francesco Serinaldi
Field(s): Index of dispersion Allan factor Power analysis Monte Carlo simulation Poisson process Point processes
Summary: Several statistical tests are available for testing the Poisson hypothesis and/or the equidispersion of a point process. The capability to discriminate between the Poissonian behaviour and more complex processes is fundamental in many areas of research including earthquake analysis, hydrology, ecology, biology, signal analysis and sociology.
Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models
Author(s): Andrew Dawson, Adrian J. Matthews, David P. Stevens, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale
Field(s): North Pacific Extra-tropical SST ENSO GCM Basic state
Summary: The extra-tropical response to El Niño in configurations of a coupled model with increased horizontal resolution in the oceanic component is shown to be more realistic than in configurations with a low resolution oceanic component. This general conclusion is independent of the atmospheric resolution.
The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle
Author(s): Marie-Estelle Demory, Pier Luigi Vidale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Paul Berrisford, Jane Strachan, Reinhard Schiemann, Matthew S. Mizielinski
Field(s): Hydrological cycle Atmospheric moisture transport Precipitation Moisture recycling GCM Horizontal resolution
Summary: The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle.
An uncertain journey around the tails of multivariate hydrological distributions
Author(s): Francesco Serinaldi
Field(s): multivariate frequency analysis;copulas;Monte Carlo simulation;multivariate design events;Joint confidence intervals;uncertainty
Summary: Moving from univariate to multivariate frequency analysis, this study extends the Klemeš' critique of the widespread belief that the increasingly refined mathematical structures of probability functions increase the accuracy and credibility of the extrapolated upper tails of the fitted distribution models.