Natural Hazards from below, meet risks of man-made structures above

Nearly 500,000 people have died through earthquake and tsunamis since 2000 with many more rendered injured and homeless. Damage to property, infrastructure and linear systems extends the depth, effects and cost of this human tragedy.

Seismic analysis combines the work of the earthquake hazard community who assess how much the ground will shake, where and how often, with the earthquake risk and engineering community who assess how much damage will occur to various types structures. At the core of this work is the development of vulnerability functions for different structures against specific measures of seismic forces including peak ground acceleration.

The WRN has gathered leaders from the world’s seismic research community to develop the next generation of seismic models and confront the most challenging aspects of evaluating related risks such as business interruption and the surging cost of repair and remediation in the post-event aftermath.

The WRN Seismic programme is led by partners at the Universities of Cambridge; Colorado; Kyoto; Imperial College London and the EUCENTRE at Pavia, Italy with wide collaboration across the network’s disciplines, including geospatial science and landslide risk.

The research programme is broad in scope and geography but focused on core themes and selected model outputs including:

• Hybrid Seismic Modelling Systems. Seismic science offers complimentary and competing methodologies of loss estimation. No one approach is optimal in all circumstances and each offers a specific lens or prism to view the challenge. A key focus of the WRN programme is to develop integrated platforms which allow these different approaches to be applied, compared and blended to obtain a greater understanding of the risk and related modelling uncertainties.

 

• Earthquake Hazard Analysis. The WRN is developing approaches for consistent seismicity modelling including an evaluation of applicable ground-motion models. Unprecedented work is being undertaken in North Africa as a basis for wider application in other regions.

 

• Enhancing the Detail of Exposed Assets. Understanding the distribution and structural character of assets at risk to seismic hazard requires significant ground-based survey and additional data collection. The WRN is developing new approaches using techniques such as satellite and airborne remote sensing, fused with additional information to create accurate and consistent building stock inventories for large geographic areas, particularly in those remote and inaccessible areas. This involves the development of bespoke algorithms that reflect the specific needs of seismic analysis.

 

• Developing Vulnerability Curves and Functions. With rapid urbanisation, the emergence of megacities and varying building standards, vulnerability is a focal point of seismic research. WRN partners are developing a framework for the synthesising of various approaches for the assessment of seismic vulnerability of structures. This research includes consideration of territorially specific design codes and their influence on choice of approach.

 

 

Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

 

As part of our commitment to seismic risk science Willis is a core sponsor of the OECD Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The five year programme will create a global independent standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk, raise awareness, promote mitigation, and stimulate insurance and risk sharing in the developing world and industrial economies. Willis and the WRN’s seismic experts are supporting the five year GEM programme and our research programmes are fully integrated.

 

For more information on the WRN Seismic Programme please contact Dr Iman Karimi at Iman.karimi@willis.com