Flood & Hydrological Risk

 

The WRN has made a conscious effort to build the world's most formidable team to confront the long-term challenge of modelling flood risk for insurance-related applications at regional, national and local scales.

 

With significant input from our atmospheric team our flood programme is led by our WRN partners at Birkbeck, Bristol, Bologna, Durham, Princeton and the National University of Singapore. 

• Hydrometeorology. Our work examines the interplay of meteorology and hydrology (hydrometeorology) to understand the atmospheric drivers of flood events including the frequency, severity, spatial extent and correlations of rainfall events.
  
  
• Typologies of Flood. The singularity of the word flood and the similarity of result inundations to homes and properties masks a large spectrum of different types of flood. Floods are caused by a myriad of factors and each event is a specific result of meteorological factors, antecedent conditions, river and floodplain hydrology, the urban landscape, drainage and sewerage systems.  For these reasons the WRN is building advanced classifications for different flood types to allow greater refinement in modelling and understanding of the components of uncertainty. 

Meanwhile the WRN is modelling flood at new and relevant spatial scales. 

• Regional Scale Flood Modelling. Traditionally flood modelling for insurance has been undertaken at national scales covering single territories. This has significant value but also has limitations: floods do not respect political boundaries and many insurers protect international portfolios in neighbouring countries. National level flood models do not always provide the integrated, regional evaluation of risk which many larger insurers require to manage exposures. It is also difficult to assess the correlation risk and diversification benefits of multinational interest with fragmented models. The WRN is focusing its current regional flood modelling in Central and Eastern Europe. 

• National Scale Flood Modelling. There is still an important role for the modelling of territories or key catchment systems. The WRN focuses on territories that are poorly covered by existing models or in developing new and innovative modelling techniques. 

• City and Conurbation Scale Modelling. Cities present the greatest concentrations of exposed assets and lives and this scale of flood modelling attracts significant interest from insurers and public sector agencies and government. This work integrates meteorological and hydrological inputs with detailed models of the urban landscape, elevation, drainage systems and characteristics of building stock, systems and infrastructure.

 

The focus of city scale flood modelling includes the megacities of emerging economies and selected cities in developed centres including North Eastern USA and London.

 

• Storm Surge. Many world cities occupy low lying, coastal locations. The hydrological and atmospheric teams combine to develop integrated modelling approaches and outputs to storm surge risk at key locations 

• Tsunami. WRN Hydrological and Seismic Groups combine to assess the extent of flooding from tsunami events at selected locations. 

• Landslide. Recent flooding and earthquake events have highlighted the significance of landslide as a component of hazard via direct impact to property and linear systems including roads and pipelines and indirect impact such as the damming of rivers and consequential flood risk. The Network's landslide programme is led by Durham with input from WRN Atmospheric, Hydrological and Seismic teams.

 

For further information on our WRN Flood and Hydrological Research Programme please contact Dr Alex Ntelekos (Delleckos) at alexandros.ntelekos@willis.com