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Publications

PublishedTypeTitleFieldsAuthorsFilterWRN Member InstitutionSummaryFilter
1/1/2011
PaperApplications of Forward Mortality Factor ModelsLife Insurance - Economic Capital Modelling
Nan Zhu and Daniel Bauer

Two of the most important challenges for the application of stochastic mortality models in life insurance practice are their complexity and their apparent incompatibility with classical life contingencies theory, which provides the backbone of insurers’ EDP systems......

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12/1/2010
PaperFuture Changes of Precipitation in EuropeFlood - Future European Rainfall Scenarios using Regional Climate Models
Christoph Frei, Regina Scholl, Sophie Fukutome, Jurg Schmidli and Pier Luigi Vidale.
The purpose of this study is to compare scenarios of European precipitation extremes for the late 21st century between six different RCMs using consistent diagnostics.
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12/1/2010
PaperPreserving the dominant physical processes in a lumped hydrological modelFlood - Modelling
Mario Martina and Ezio Todini
11/2/2010
PaperA stochastic model for the spatial‐temporal simulation of nonhomogeneous rainfall occurrence and amountsFlood - Rainfall Modelling
A. Burton, H. J. Fowler, C. G. Kilsby and P. E. O’Connell
The nonhomogeneous spatial activation of raincells (NSAR) model is presented which provides a continuous spatial‐temporal stochastic simulation of rainfall exhibiting spatial nonstationarity in both amounts and occurrence.
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9/1/2010
PaperParimutuel Insurance for Hedging against Catastrophic RiskAlternative Risk Transfer
Chieh Ou-Yang and Neil Doherty
This paper examines whether parimutuels can hedge risk-averse people against catastrophic losses.
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9/1/2010
PaperModeling defaults with nested Archimedean copulasCredit Risk Modelling
Marius Hofert
8/27/2010
PaperSustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditionsSustainability - Climate & Water
D. R. Archer, N. Forsythe, H. J. Fowler and S. M. Shah
Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment........
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8/10/2010
PaperOn the Calculation of the Solvency Capital Requirement based on Nested SimulationsRegulation: Solvency 2 & Life Insurance Risk Capital
Daniel Bauer, Daniela Bergmann and Andreas Reuss
The current paper addresses these problems by providing a mathematical framework for the derivation of the required risk capital and by reviewing different alternatives for the numerical implementation based on nested simulations. In particular, we seek to provide guidance for practitioners by illustrating and comparing the different techniques based on numerical experiments.
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8/10/2010
PaperThe role of wave energy accumulation in tropical cyclogenesis over the tropical North AtlanticTropical Cyclone: Hurricane Genesis
James M. Done, Greg J. Holland and Peter J. Webster
A hierarchical modeling approach is used to study the process by which interactions of easterly waves with the background flow can result in a reduction in the longitudinal and vertical scale of the waves.
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6/11/2010
PresentationManaging Extremes: Forecasting Climate and Capital in a Modelled WorldCatastrophe, Capital and Regulatory Modelling
Rowan Douglas
A description of how science, catastrophe risk modelling, internal capital modelling and regulatory and credit modelling and forming an integrated supply chain. presented at International Insurance Society Annual Meeting, Madrid, June 2010
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6/1/2010
PaperModelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood eventFlood - UK Flood Modelling Techniques
M. S. Horritt PhD, CEng, MCIWEM, P. D. Bates PhD, T. J. Fewtrell PhD, D. C. Mason PhD
and M. D. Wilson PhD
The performance of a two-dimensional numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with global positioning system surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood.
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6/1/2010
PaperModeling the Evolution of Implied CDO CorrelationsCredit Risk Modelling
Marius Hofert
5/24/2010
PaperIncorporation of the spatial correlation of Arias intensity within Earthquake Loss EstimationSeismic
Roxane Foulser-Piggott and Peter J. Stafford
In this paper, a model for the spatial correlation of Arias intensity is proposed.
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5/18/2010
PaperNear real‐time flood wave approximation on large riversFlood - Remote Sensing
G. Schumann, G. Di Baldassarre, D. Alsdorf, and P. D. Bates
This paper investigates the potential of low‐cost spaceborne data to approximate longitudinal surface profiles during flood events on large rivers.
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5/3/2010
PaperModel Investigations of the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on FutureAtmospheric
Greg J. Holland, James Done and Cindy Bruyere
According to three recent assessments, global warming will likely cause increased hurricane activity in the future. If true, this raises the possibility that new coastal and offshore facilities are being under-designed, and that older facilities may need hardening in order to maintain presently accepted risk levels. As these three assessments readily admit, many uncertainties remain concerning the accuracy of their forecast. The study summarized in this paper has sought to narrow the uncertainties by using several methods.
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5/1/2010
PaperVisualisation of Origins, Destinations and Flows with OD MapsGIS & Geovisualisation
Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood
5/1/2010
PaperEfficiently sampling nested Archimedean copulasStatistics & Modelling
Marius Hofert
3/23/2010
ArticleNonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over RomeClimate - Rainfall and Temperature Time Series Rome
Gabrielle Villarini, James A. Smith and Francesco Napolitano
In this study, GAMLSS is used to model seasonal rainfall, and minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures over Rome, using the record from the Collegio Romano observatory.
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3/23/2010
ArticleDetecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood riskFlood - Understanding Trends in Precipitation Extremes through Regionla Climate Modelling
H. J. Fowler and R. L. Wilby
There is growing evidence of coherent, global patterns of change in annual precipitation and runoff with high latitudes experiencing increases consistent with climate model projections. This paper describes a methodology for estimating detection times for changes in seasonal precipitation extremes.
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3/18/2010
PaperRectangular Hierarchical Cartograms for Socio-Economic DataGIS & Geovisualisation
Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood
A presentation of rectangular hierarchical cartograms for mapping socio-economic data and a demonstration of cartograms by mapping the Office for National Statistics Output Area Classification (OAC) by unit postcode (1.52 million in Great Britain) through the postcode hierarchy, using these to explore spatial variation.
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3/4/2010
PaperApproaches for multi‐step density forecasts with application to aggregated windAtmospheric

A. Lau and P. E. McSharry

Using aggregated wind power in Ireland, two approaches of multi-step density forecasts are studied which can be obtained from simple iterations so that intensive computations are avoided.
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3/1/2010
PaperFlash flood hydrology in karstic terrain: Flumineddu Canyon, central-east SardiniaFlood
Mario Martina
2/21/2010
PaperTropical cyclones and climate changeTropical Cyclones - Leading Consensus View on Impact of Cliamte Change on TC Frequency and Severity
Knutson, Thomas R., J McBride, J Chan, K A Emanuel, G Holland, C Landsea, Isaac Held, J Kossin, A K Srivastava, and M Sugi
Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.

 
2/8/2010
PresentationTexas Triple Threat SeminarGeneral
Willis Research Network

The WRN Texas Triple Threat seminar discussed the combined impact from hurricane, tornado and hail events on Texas property owners while offering risk management solutions through the constructive use of reinsurance for property insurers.

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1/22/2010
PaperModeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanesAtmospheric
Bender, Morris A., Thomas R Knutson, Robert E Tuleya, Joseph J Sirutis, Gabriel A Vecchi, Stephen T Garner, and Isaac Held,
Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions.
1/7/2010
PaperDetecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experimentClimate Change
Hayley J. Fowler, Daniel Cooley, Stephan R. Sain and Milo Thurston
An investigation of the question posed by policy makers, namely, “when will changes in extreme precipitation due to climate change be detectable?".
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1/1/2010
PaperVisual analysis of sensitivity in CAT modelsCat Models
Aidan Slingsby, Jo Wood, Jason Dykes, David Clouston and Matthew Foote
We demonstrate how visual interactive graphics can support both spatial and aspatial model sensitivity analysis, using a Venezuela-based earthquake CAT model as a case study. We identify the model inputs that drive the model’s estimated losses using interactive maps, treemaps to give overviews and linked barcharts, spineplots and maps to explore the effects of specific input combinations on the estimated loss outputs. Interactively linking these methods allow them to be integrated into the workflows of analysts.
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1/1/2010
PaperDiscovery Exhibition: Using Spatial Treemaps in Local Authority Decision Making and ReportingGIS & Geovisualisation
Robert Radburn, Roger Beecham, Jason Dykes, Jo Wood and Aidan Slingsby
At Leicestershire County Council, spatial treemaps are used to analyse labour markets and commuting behaviour. This novel visualization technique, presented at InfoVis 2008, has resulted in a number of insights and discoveries.
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1/1/2010
PaperDiscovery Exhibition: Making Hurricane Track Data AccessibleAtmospheric
Aidan Slingsby, Jane Strachan, Pier Luigi-Vidale, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood
The interactive tool allows the exploration, validation and presentation of hundreds of years of dynamically simulated storm tracks. The tracks were generated as part of a research project to improve the risk assessment of tropical storm damage by the insurance industry.....
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1/1/2010
PaperPoster: Tweeting Visualizations for Collaborative Visual AnalysisGIS & Geovisualisation
Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood
The demonstration of a new approach to collaborative visual analysis, in which descriptions of graphics are shared online. HiVE – a high-level descriptive language – captures the way in which graphics are built and configured.
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1/1/2010
PaperDesigning Visual Analytics Systems for Disease Spread and EvolutionGIS & Geovisualisation
Jo Wood, Aidan Slingsby and Jason Dykes
A report on the design decisions and software development process used to create visual analytics software for understanding disease spread and mutation.
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1/1/2010
PaperRethinking Map Legends with VisualizationGIS & Geovisualisation
Jason Dykes, Jo Wood and Aidan Slingsby
This design paper presents new guidance for creating map legends in a dynamic environment. It suggests is a set of guidelines for legend design in a visualization context and a series of illustrative themes through which they may be expressed.
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1/1/2010
PaperOil prices – Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterionExposure & Vulnerability
Nigel Meade
12/1/2009
ArticleEmpirical Equations for the Prediction of the Significant, Bracketed, and Uniform Duration of Earthquake Ground MotionSeismic
Julain J. Bommer, Peter J. Stafford and John E. Alarcon
This article is an update and extension of the study of Kempton and Stewart (2006), which presented equations for the prediction of significant duration derived from the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) dataset; this article explores alternative functional forms for such equations and additionally presents equations for the prediction of other definitions of duration.
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11/29/2009
ArticleRadar analyses of extreme rainfall and flooding in urban drainage basinsHydrological
Gabrielle Villarini, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, Paula Sturdevant-Rees and Witold F. Krajewski
In this study, we use observations from two WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) weather radars, a dense network of rain gages, and a network of stream gages to examine: (1) spacetime variability of extreme flood-producing rainfall, (2) radar rainfall estimation for extreme rain events, and (3) heterogeneous flood response to extreme rainfall in urban drainage basins.
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11/11/2009
PaperUsing probabilistic climate change information from a multimodel ensemble for water resources assessmentHydrological
L. J. Manning, J. W. Hall, H. J. Fowler, C. G. Kilsby and C. Tebaldi
The structure of the paper reflects the multiple stages of the analysis required for climate impacts studies.
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11/1/2009
PaperConstructing hierarchical Archimedean copulas with Lévy subordinatorsGIS & Geovisualisation
Marius Hofert
10/28/2009
ArticleDownscaling transient climate change using a Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses stochastic rainfall modelHydrological
A. Burton, H.J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop and C.G. Kilsby
The presentation of a new transient rainfall simulation methodology which combines dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques to produce transient (i.e. temporally non-stationary) climate change scenarios.
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10/20/2009
PaperImpact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone CountsAtmospheric
Christopher W. Landsea, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Lennart Bengtsson and Thomas R. Knutson
This study explores the influence of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes inTCfrequency, using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT).
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10/19/2009
PaperWRN release latest research bulletin on insurance risk from volcanic eruptions in EuropeGeneral
Willis Research Network
This paper, authored by Prof Robin Spence of Cambridge Architectural Research Limited, Prof Giulio Zuccaro, Scientific Director, Plinius Centre, University of Naples Federico II and Dr Rashmin Gunasekera, of Willis Analytics, provides a detailed review of risk from Vesuvius and proposes a new risk ranking of European volcanoes, with a focus on insurance risk potential.
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10/11/2009
PaperConfiguring Hierarchical Layouts to Address Research QuestionsGIS & Geovisualisation
Aidan Slingsby, Jo Wood and Jason Dykes
This paper explores the effects of selecting alternative layouts in hierarchical displays that show multiple aspects of large multivariate datasets, including spatial and temporal characteristics.
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8/1/2009
ArticleCracking an Open Safe: More HAZUS Vulnerability Functions in Terms of Structure-Independent IntensitySeismic
Keith Porter
In this work, mean repair cost is tabulated against intensity measures, for various combinations of model building type, code design level, occupancy class, seismic environment, NEHRP site soil class, magnitude range and distance range.
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7/1/2009
ArticleThe Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Cyclones in Past, Present and Future ClimatesClimate Change
James Done, Aixue Hu, E. Christa Farmer, Jianjun Yin, Susas Bates, Amy B. Frappier, Daria J. Halkides, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Ryan Sriver and Jonathan Woodruff
Understanding the interactions between tropical cyclones and the thermohaline circulation (THC) and their contributions to climate and climate change is an intriguing, challenging, and important area of research........
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6/19/2009
PaperA dynamic rating curve approach to indirect dischargeGIS & Geovisualisation
F. Dottori, M. L. V. Martina and E. Todini

In the present work, an original approach, based on simultaneous stage measurements at two adjacent cross sections, is introduced and compared to the approaches described in the literature.

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5/27/2009
PaperWRN European Windstorm Clustering - Briefing PaperAtmospheric
Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter
David Stephenson, WRN Senior Academic, University of Exeter
Ian Cook, Willis Re
Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, Willis Re
This WRN Briefing Document provides an overview of the Serial Clustering of Intense European Windstorms paper.
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5/26/2009
PaperSerial Clustering of Intense European WindstormsAtmospheric
Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter
David Stephenson, WRN Senior Academic, University of Exeter
Ian Cook, Willis Re
Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, Willis Re
This paper investigates how clustering of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones depends on the vorticity intensity of the windstorms, and the sampling time period over which storm transits are counted.
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5/15/2009
ArticleFlood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basinHydrological
Gabriele Villarini, James A. Smith, Francesco Serinaldi, Jerad Bales, Paul D. Bates and Witold F. Krajewski
In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions.
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5/10/2009
PaperCurrent empirical ground-motion prediction equations for Europe and their application to Eurocode 8Seismic
Julian J. Bommer, Peter J. Stafford and Sinan Akkar
Following a very brief overview of the historical development of ground-motion recording and prediction in Europe, the paper summarises the current state-of-the-art in terms of regional
prediction equations. The paper then goes on to explore the issue of regional variations in earthquake ground-motion and challenges the frequently-made assumption that equations
specific to individual countries or regions are required.
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5/3/2009
ArticleEmpirical equations for the prediction of the equivalent number of cycles of earthquake ground motionSeismic
Peter J. Stafford and Julian J. Bommer
In this study, the strong-motion data base assembled in the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) project is used to derive equations for two different measures of the effective numbers of cycles of ground motion as functions of magnitude, distance, and site classification.
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5/2/2009
PaperSystem economics: overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting modelsAtmospheric
D. Orrell and P. E. McSharry
An outline of the main foundations for a theory of systems
economics.
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5/1/2009
ArticleCracking an Open Safe: HAZUS Vulnerability Functions in Terms of Structure-Independent Spectral AccelerationSeismic
Keith Porter
The HAZUS-MH Technical Manual provides a method and data for calculating earthquake loss to ordinary buildings using in part the capacity spectrum method (CSM) of structural analysis.
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5/1/2009
PaperMultivariate hierarchical copulas with shocksGIS & Geovisualisation
Marius Hofert
4/27/2009
PaperMulti-Hazard Reliability Analysis of Lifeline NetworksSeismic
M. B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University
J. Kiyono, Kyoto University
Y. Ono, Kyoto University
Paper submitted to the WCCE-ECCE-TCCE Joint Conference in Turkey. Willis Research Fellow Mohammad Javanbarg and team look at the multi-hazard reliability analysis of lifeline networks.
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4/27/2009
PaperFuzzy Decision Support System for Prioritization of Seismic Upgrading in Critical Infrastructure SystemsSeismic
M.B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Acadmic, Kyoto University
S. Takada, Kyoto University
Paper submitted to to ASCE conference (TCLEE 2009) to be held in Oakland in June 2009. The authors look at developing a fuzzy decision support system.
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4/19/2009
ArticleLarge scale surface–subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reservesHydrological
Pascal Goderniaux, Serge Brouyère, Hayley J. Fowler, Stephen Blenkinsop, René Therrien, Philippe Orban, Alain Dassargues
This study provides an improved methodology for the estimation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater reserves, where a physically-based surface–subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin (465 sq km), Belgium.
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4/1/2009
ArticleA Pilot Study for the Collaborative Development of New Ways of Visualising Seasonal Climate ForecastsClimate Change
Aidan Slingsby, Rachel Lowe, Jason Dykes, David Stephenson, Jo Wood and Tim Jupp

Seasonal climate forecasts are used by climate scientists, government departments, utility agencies, health agencies and in agriculture. Uncertainties in environmental data and in numerical prediction models make such forecasts inherently probabilistic. Good decisions require that this uncertainty in predictions be communicated to users. Some established methods have limitations, prompting this collaborative work between data visualizers and climate scientists facilitated by the Willis Research Network.

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3/30/2009
PresentationJCRP for Business and Society: A view from the Insurance IndustryWRN Related
Rowan Douglas, Managing Director, Willis Re & Chairman, Willis Research Network
 
Rowan Douglas' presentation at the Joint Climate Research Programme (JCRP) launch event in London
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3/27/2009
PresentationStorm Surge Modeling and Climatology for the New York City Metropolitan RegionHydrological
Dr. Brian Colle, Stony Brook University
Dr Colle's storm surge presentation from the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009
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3/27/2009
PresentationHurricanes in the Northeast United StatesAtmospheric
James Done, Willis Research Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Dr James Done's presentation on hurricane risk in the NE United States from the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009
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3/27/2009
PresentationNortheast Hurricane Risk: Present and FutureAtmospheric
Prof Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Prof Emanuel's presentation on NE US hurricane risk from the March 2009 WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit.
 
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3/27/2009
PresentationThe Willis Hurricane IndexAtmospheric
Dr Greg Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Dr Holland presents the Willis Hurricane Index at the March 2009 WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit
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3/27/2009
PresentationAtlantic Hurricanes and Climate ChangeAtmospheric
Prof Tom Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey
Prof Knutson's presentation from the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009
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3/27/2009
PresentationDemand SurgeExposure & Vulnerability
Dr. Anna Olsen, Willis Research Fellow, University of Colorado
Prof. Keith Porter, University of Colorado
Dr Anna Olsen presents her work on demand surge to the delegates at the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009
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3/27/2009
PresentationBusiness Interruption & Lifeline DamageExposure & Vulnerability
Prof Keith Porter, University of Colorado
Prof Porter's presentation on business interruption to the delegates at the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009
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3/27/2009
PresentationTropical Cyclones and Extreme Floods in the Eastern United StatesHydrological
Prof Jim Smith, Princeton University
Gabrielle Villarini, Willis Research Fellow, Princeton University
Prof Smith's and Dr Villarini's presentation on extreme flood risk at the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009
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3/26/2009
PresentationWRN Princeton Insurers’ Summit - PresentationsAtmospheric
  • Brian Colle, State University of New York at Stony Brook
  • James Done, Willis Research Fellow, NCAR
  • Kerry Emanuel, MIT
  • Greg Holland, NCAR
  • Tom Knutson, GFDL at Princeton
  • Anna Olsen, Willis Research Fellow, University of Colorado at Boulder
  • Keith Porter, University of Colorado at Boulder
  • James Smith, Princeton University
  • Gabriele Villarini, Willis Research Fellow, Princeton University
 
Presentations from the WRN Cat 3 Hurricane in the Northeast: Insurers' Summit on 19 March 2009
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3/23/2009
PaperThe Roles of Wind Shear and Thermal Stratification in Past and Projected Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone ActivityAtmospheric
Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held, Thomas Kuntson and Joseph Sirutis
A recent study using a high-resolution dynamical downscaling model has captured both the trend and interannual variations in Atlantic storm frequency with considerable fidelity. In the present work, this downscaling framework is used to assess the importance of the large-scale thermodynamic environment relative to other factors influencing Atlantic tropical storms.
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3/1/2009
ArticleProbabilistic seismic hazard analysis for rock sites in the cities of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ra's Al Khaymah, United Arab EmiratesAtmospheric
G. Aldama-Bustos, J.J. Bommer, C.H. Fenton and P.J. Stafford
The purpose of this study is to obtain a reliable estimate of the seismic hazard in the Emirates, expressed as uniform hazard spectra (UHS) on rock sites in three key cities in the country: Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ra's Al Khaymah.
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2/23/2009
ArticleIntroduction to the Willis Research NetworkGeneral
Willis Research Network
This document gives a concise history and ethos of the network, a full list of members and institutions, and a breakdown of the core research programme
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2/23/2009
PaperMinimal Path Sets Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Lifeline NetworksSeismic
M. B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University
J. Kiyono, Kyoto University
Y. Ono, Kyoto University
 
Paper submitted to to ASCE conference (TCLEE 2009) to be held in Oakland in June 2009. A heuristic minimal path sets method for analysing seismic reliability of lifeline networks is proposed.
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2/17/2009
PresentationWRN/LMA Seminar - Thames Flood: A Level-headed approachHydrological
Kevin Horsburgh, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
Prof Paul Bates, Bristol University
Andrew McKenzie, British Geological Survey
Dr Diane Horn & Jillian Eldridge, Birkbeck College, University of London
Alex Nickson, Greater London Authority
Nick Haigh, Environment Agency
Dr Boyko Dodov, AIR
Stefan Eppert, RMS
Slides from the joint WRN/Lloyd's Market Association Seminar on Thames flood risk in February 2009
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1/19/2009
ArticleAn energy-based envelope function for the stochastic simulation of earthquake accelerogramsSeismic
P.J. Stafford, S. Sgobba and G.C. Marano
The primary purpose of this article is to offer a new envelope function that represents the first component of a full non-stationary stochastic approach to accelerogram generation.
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1/9/2009
ArticleHurricane Risk at High ResolutionAtmospheric
Dr Greg Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Dr James Done, Willis Research Fellow, NCAR
 
Dr Greg Holland reveals his revolutionary research in Catastrophe Risk Management Magazine
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1/9/2009
PaperTracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictionsClimate Change
Y. Hea, F. Wetterhall, H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, M. Wilsonc, J. Freerd and G. McGregore
This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England.
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1/6/2009
PaperMulti-model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremesClimate Change
H. J. Fowler and M. Ekstrom
The overall aim of this study is to create regional multi-model ensemble distributions for each season showing projected change to the 5- and 25-year return values of long- and short-duration precipitation extremes using the weights developed for
each region and RCM.
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1/1/2009
ArticleThe Role of Layout and Order in Treemaps for Showing Spatial and Temporal Variation in House PricesGIS & Geovisualisation
Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes, Jo Wood and Andrew Crooks
The price of property and how it varies spatially within cities through time can be linked to the economic and social processes of urban systems. Treemaps (Shneiderman, 1992) are used for visually exploring 1.8 million property sales in London between 2000 and 2007 – and focus on how the layout and ordering of elements in the treemap can reveal different information.
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1/1/2009
PaperFlow tree for Exploring Spatial TrajectoryGIS & Geovisualisation
Jo Wood, Jason Dykes, Aidan Slingsby and Robert Radburn
This paper presents a novel alternative representation of origin-destination topology that makes it more amenable to the visualization of structure and spatial organisation of trajectories.
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1/1/2009
PaperVisualization of Uncertainty and Analysis of Geographical DataGIS & Geovisualisation
Jo Wood, Aidan Slingsby, Naz Khalili-Shavarini, Jason Dykes and David Mountain
A team of five worked on this challenge to identify a possible criminal strucutre within the Flitter social network. This summary of the work emphasises one of those applications detailing the geographic analysis and uncertainty handling
of the network data.
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1/1/2009
ArticleEditorial: Climate extremes: progress and future directionsClimate Change
Lisa V. Alexander, Nigel Tapper, Xuebin Zhang, Hayley J. Fowler, Claudia Tebaldi and Amanda Lynch
This Special Issue of the International Journal of Climatology
arose from two similar symposia held by the International Union of Geophysics and Geodesics (IUGG) and American Geophysical Union (AGU) in 2007.
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12/12/2008
PresentationSerial clustering of intense European storms (Poster Presentation)Atmospheric
Dr Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter
Poster presentation from the Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans
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12/10/2008
PresentationWRN Seminar - Supercomputers, Climate Change and Catastrophe ModellingAtmospheric
Dr Greg Holland, WRN Senior Academic, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Dr Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter
Slides from the WRN's December Seminar, including Dr Greg Holland's keynote presentation and new research from Willis Research Fellow Dr Renato Vitolo.
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12/1/2008
PaperThe ShakeOut Scenario: a Hypothetical MW7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas FaultSeismic
Dr Keith Porter, WRN Senior Academic, University of Colorado
Prof Charles Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University
A summary of the most extensive earthquake planning scenario ever created for the United States
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12/1/2008
ArticleEuropean Geosciences Union 2009 - Call For PapersFlyer
Matt Foote, Willis Research Network
David Bresch, Swiss Re
Robert Muir-Wood, RMS
Anselm Smolka, Munich Re
The WRN's Call For Papers for the European Geosciences Union
General Assembly 2009
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12/1/2008
ArticleGlobalizing quake informationSeismic
Destruction from earthquakes continues to threaten poor and wealthy nations alike. The Global Earthquake Model is a potentially important step towards providing risk information on a worldwide basis, using a unifi ed standard.
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11/9/2008
PaperA Review of Demand Surge Knowledge and Modelling PracticeExposure & Vulnerability
Dr. Anna Olsen, Willis Research Fellow, University of Colorado at Boulder
Prof. Keith Porter, WRN Senior Academic, University of Colorado at Boulder
This state-of-the-art review summarises the research into demand surge thus far and summarises plans for a future quantitive model
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11/3/2008
PaperReliability Analysis of Infrastructure Networks Using OBDDSeismic
M. B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University
J. Kiyono, Kyoto University
Y. Ono, Kyoto University
The authors of this paper propose a method for computing terminal-pair reliability of infrastructure networks based on Binary Decision Diagram (BDD)
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11/3/2008
PaperSeismic Reliability Assessment of Water Supply SystemsSeismic
M.B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
S. Takada, Emeritus Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Kobe University
This study develops a comprehensive seismic reliability model for serviceability assessment of water supply systems.
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11/2/2008
PaperA Revised Hurricane Pressure–Wind ModelAtmospheric
Dr Greg Holland, WRN Senior Academic, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Dr Holland presents a new technique for relating central pressure and maximum winds in tropical cyclones
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10/27/2008
ArticleInsurers rise to flood challenges: Stuart Lane talks to the Financial TimesHydrological
Professor Stuart Lane, WRN Senior Academic, Durham University
Prof Stuart Lane talks to the UK's Financial Times about the Willis Research Network's new and novel ways of acquiring historical flood data
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10/21/2008
PresentationState of the Art - Willis Research Fellows present to London MarketAtmospheric/Flood/Seismic
Dr Jane Strachan, Willis Research Fellow, Walker Institute, University of Reading
Dr Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter
Tim Fewtrell, Willis Research Fellow, University of Bristol
Dr Emma Waterhouse, Willis Research Fellow, Durham University
Dr Peter Stafford, Willis Research Fellow, Imperial College London
Presentations from the WRN's UK-based Fellows, given to a packed house of representatives from the London Market. Topics include Geovisualisation, General Circulation Models, Storm clustering, Urban Flood and Earthquake loss estimation.
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10/21/2008
PaperA probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level riseHydrological
Prof Paul Bates, WRN Senior Academic, University of Bristol
This paper describes a new method for estimating future coastal flood risk that takes into account uncertainty over future sea level rise
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10/21/2008
PaperThe Thames Gateway: Flood risk, planning policy and insurance loss potentialHydrological
Jillian Eldridge, Birkbeck College, University of London
Diane Horn, Birkbeck College, University of London
This paper, using the Thames Gateway case study, presents an overview of flood issues in a generic context with a recognition of the difficulties of human interactions on the floodplain.
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10/17/2008
PaperSTATE-OF-THE-ART OF EUROPEAN EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION SOFTWARESeismic
F.O. Strasser
1
, P.J. Stafford
2
, J.J. Bommer
3
and M. Erdik
A review of the state-of the art of loss estimation methodology and software has been carried out as part of subproject
JRA3 of the NERIES (Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology) project currently being carried
out in Europe.
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10/9/2008
ArticleClimate Change at Home - UK Perspectives on the Changing Climate & FloodingClimate Change
Professor Paul Bates, WRN Senior Academic, University of Bristol
Professor Stuart Lane, WRN Senior Academic, Durham University
WRN's Prof Paul Bates and Prof Stuart Lane talk UK flooding, climate change and the future in this year's International Underwriting Association (IUA) World @ Risk book
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10/8/2008
PaperTourists and disasters: lessons from the 26 December 2004 tsunamisSeismic
Ilan Kelman Robin Spence, Jason Palmer, Marla Petal and Keiko Saito
The 26 December 2004 tsunamis around the Indian Ocean exposed the vulnerability of many coastal communities, including those serving tourists. To draw conclusions regarding disaster risk reduction for tourism in coastal areas, this study surveyed international tourists who survived the tsunami  regarding their perceptions and experiences of the disaster.
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10/1/2008
PresentationCapital Catastrophe & Climate Change - Keynote Address to the Icelandic Innovation CenterClimate Change
Rowan Douglas, Chairman, Willis Research Network
Rowan Douglas' keynote presentation to the Icenlandic Innovation Center in Reykjavik, examining some of the future challenges of climate change with a particular focus on Iceland.
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10/1/2008
PaperObservations from the Folkestone, U.K., Earthquake of 28 April 2007SeismicS. L. Sargeant, P. J. Stafford, R. Lawley, G. Weatherill, A.-J. S. Weston, J. J. Bommer, P. W. Burton, M. Free, R. M. W. Musson, T. Kuuyuor, and T. Rossetto
A compendium of observations from the Folkestone earthquake is presented here. This includes analysis of the first “strong-motion” record from a British earthquake, a description of the damage, an investigation of how the distribution of damage may relate to the distribution of unconsolidated deposits, and the results of the macroseismic survey for the earthquake.
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9/11/2008
PaperPreparing for a New View of U.S. Earthquake RiskSeismic
Prasad Gunturi, Willis' Director of US Modeling Research
Kyle Beatty, Vice President, Willis
A look at how the vendor earthquake models may change in response to the recent release of new science from the United States Geological Survey (USGS)
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8/11/2008
ArticleGoogle Earth and Risk Management - A New FutureGIS & Geovisualisation
Dr Aidan Slingsby, Willis Research Fellow, City University London
The WRN's Dr Aidan Slingsby talks Google, Geovisualisation and GIS to reinsurance magazine, The Review
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8/8/2008
PaperPriority evaluation of seismic mitigation in pipeline networksSeismic
M.B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
S. Takada, Kobe University
Y. Kuwata, Kobe University
This paper develops a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to support decision making for priority evaluation of the pipelines renewal applicable to metropolitan water distribution networks
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