Published  | Type  |   | Fields  | Authors | WRN Member Institution  | Summary |    |
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| Paper | Applications of Forward Mortality Factor Models | Life Insurance - Economic Capital Modelling | Nan Zhu and Daniel Bauer | | Two of the most important challenges for the application of stochastic mortality models in life insurance practice are their complexity and their apparent incompatibility with classical life contingencies theory, which provides the backbone of insurers’ EDP systems...... |  |
| Paper | Future Changes of Precipitation in Europe | Flood - Future European Rainfall Scenarios using Regional Climate Models | Christoph Frei, Regina Scholl, Sophie Fukutome, Jurg Schmidli and Pier Luigi Vidale. | | The purpose of this study is to compare scenarios of European precipitation extremes for the late 21st century between six different RCMs using consistent diagnostics. |  |
| Paper | Preserving the dominant physical processes in a lumped hydrological model | Flood - Modelling | Mario Martina and Ezio Todini | | | |
| Paper | A stochastic model for the spatial‐temporal simulation of nonhomogeneous rainfall occurrence and amounts | Flood - Rainfall Modelling | A. Burton, H. J. Fowler, C. G. Kilsby and P. E. O’Connell | | The nonhomogeneous spatial activation of raincells (NSAR) model is presented which provides a continuous spatial‐temporal stochastic simulation of rainfall exhibiting spatial nonstationarity in both amounts and occurrence. |  |
| Paper | Parimutuel Insurance for Hedging against Catastrophic Risk | Alternative Risk Transfer | Chieh Ou-Yang and Neil Doherty | | This paper examines whether parimutuels can hedge risk-averse people against catastrophic losses. |  |
| Paper | Modeling defaults with nested Archimedean copulas | Credit Risk Modelling | Marius Hofert | | | |
| Paper | Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions | Sustainability - Climate & Water | D. R. Archer, N. Forsythe, H. J. Fowler and S. M. Shah | | Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment........ |  |
| Paper | On the Calculation of the Solvency Capital Requirement based on Nested Simulations | Regulation: Solvency 2 & Life Insurance Risk Capital | Daniel Bauer, Daniela Bergmann and Andreas Reuss | | The current paper addresses these problems by providing a mathematical framework for the derivation of the required risk capital and by reviewing different alternatives for the numerical implementation based on nested simulations. In particular, we seek to provide guidance for practitioners by illustrating and comparing the different techniques based on numerical experiments. |  |
| Paper | The role of wave energy accumulation in tropical cyclogenesis over the tropical North Atlantic | Tropical Cyclone: Hurricane Genesis | James M. Done, Greg J. Holland and Peter J. Webster | | A hierarchical modeling approach is used to study the process by which interactions of easterly waves with the background flow can result in a reduction in the longitudinal and vertical scale of the waves. |  |
| Presentation | Managing Extremes: Forecasting Climate and Capital in a Modelled World | Catastrophe, Capital and Regulatory Modelling | Rowan Douglas | | A description of how science, catastrophe risk modelling, internal capital modelling and regulatory and credit modelling and forming an integrated supply chain. presented at International Insurance Society Annual Meeting, Madrid, June 2010 |  |
| Paper | Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event | Flood - UK Flood Modelling Techniques | M. S. Horritt PhD, CEng, MCIWEM, P. D. Bates PhD, T. J. Fewtrell PhD, D. C. Mason PhD and M. D. Wilson PhD | | The performance of a two-dimensional numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with global positioning system surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood. |  |
| Paper | Modeling the Evolution of Implied CDO Correlations | Credit Risk Modelling | Marius Hofert | | | |
| Paper | Incorporation of the spatial correlation of Arias intensity within Earthquake Loss Estimation | Seismic | Roxane Foulser-Piggott and Peter J. Stafford | | In this paper, a model for the spatial correlation of Arias intensity is proposed. |  |
| Paper | Near real‐time flood wave approximation on large rivers | Flood - Remote Sensing | G. Schumann, G. Di Baldassarre, D. Alsdorf, and P. D. Bates | | This paper investigates the potential of low‐cost spaceborne data to approximate longitudinal surface profiles during flood events on large rivers. |  |
| Paper | Model Investigations of the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Future | Atmospheric | Greg J. Holland, James Done and Cindy Bruyere | | According to three recent assessments, global warming will likely cause increased hurricane activity in the future. If true, this raises the possibility that new coastal and offshore facilities are being under-designed, and that older facilities may need hardening in order to maintain presently accepted risk levels. As these three assessments readily admit, many uncertainties remain concerning the accuracy of their forecast. The study summarized in this paper has sought to narrow the uncertainties by using several methods. |  |
| Paper | Visualisation of Origins, Destinations and Flows with OD Maps | GIS & Geovisualisation | Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood | | | |
| Paper | Efficiently sampling nested Archimedean copulas | Statistics & Modelling | Marius Hofert | | | |
| Article | Nonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over Rome | Climate - Rainfall and Temperature Time Series Rome | Gabrielle Villarini, James A. Smith and Francesco Napolitano | | In this study, GAMLSS is used to model seasonal rainfall, and minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures over Rome, using the record from the Collegio Romano observatory. |  |
| Article | Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk | Flood - Understanding Trends in Precipitation Extremes through Regionla Climate Modelling | H. J. Fowler and R. L. Wilby | | There is growing evidence of coherent, global patterns of change in annual precipitation and runoff with high latitudes experiencing increases consistent with climate model projections. This paper describes a methodology for estimating detection times for changes in seasonal precipitation extremes. |  |
| Paper | Rectangular Hierarchical Cartograms for Socio-Economic Data | GIS & Geovisualisation | Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood | | A presentation of rectangular hierarchical cartograms for mapping socio-economic data and a demonstration of cartograms by mapping the Office for National Statistics Output Area Classification (OAC) by unit postcode (1.52 million in Great Britain) through the postcode hierarchy, using these to explore spatial variation. |  |
| Paper | Approaches for multi‐step density forecasts with application to aggregated wind | Atmospheric | A. Lau and P. E. McSharry | | Using aggregated wind power in Ireland, two approaches of multi-step density forecasts are studied which can be obtained from simple iterations so that intensive computations are avoided. |  |
| Paper | Flash flood hydrology in karstic terrain: Flumineddu Canyon, central-east Sardinia | Flood | Mario Martina | | | |
| Paper | Tropical cyclones and climate change | Tropical Cyclones - Leading Consensus View on Impact of Cliamte Change on TC Frequency and Severity | Knutson, Thomas R., J McBride, J Chan, K A Emanuel, G Holland, C Landsea, Isaac Held, J Kossin, A K Srivastava, and M Sugi | | Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.
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| Presentation | Texas Triple Threat Seminar | General | Willis Research Network | | The WRN Texas Triple Threat seminar discussed the combined impact from hurricane, tornado and hail events on Texas property owners while offering risk management solutions through the constructive use of reinsurance for property insurers. |  |
| Paper | Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes | Atmospheric | Bender, Morris A., Thomas R Knutson, Robert E Tuleya, Joseph J Sirutis, Gabriel A Vecchi, Stephen T Garner, and Isaac Held, | | Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. | |
| Paper | Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment | Climate Change | Hayley J. Fowler, Daniel Cooley, Stephan R. Sain and Milo Thurston | | An investigation of the question posed by policy makers, namely, “when will changes in extreme precipitation due to climate change be detectable?". |  |
| Paper | Visual analysis of sensitivity in CAT models | Cat Models | Aidan Slingsby, Jo Wood, Jason Dykes, David Clouston and Matthew Foote | | We demonstrate how visual interactive graphics can support both spatial and aspatial model sensitivity analysis, using a Venezuela-based earthquake CAT model as a case study. We identify the model inputs that drive the model’s estimated losses using interactive maps, treemaps to give overviews and linked barcharts, spineplots and maps to explore the effects of specific input combinations on the estimated loss outputs. Interactively linking these methods allow them to be integrated into the workflows of analysts. |  |
| Paper | Discovery Exhibition: Using Spatial Treemaps in Local Authority Decision Making and Reporting | GIS & Geovisualisation | Robert Radburn, Roger Beecham, Jason Dykes, Jo Wood and Aidan Slingsby | | At Leicestershire County Council, spatial treemaps are used to analyse labour markets and commuting behaviour. This novel visualization technique, presented at InfoVis 2008, has resulted in a number of insights and discoveries. |  |
| Paper | Discovery Exhibition: Making Hurricane Track Data Accessible | Atmospheric | Aidan Slingsby, Jane Strachan, Pier Luigi-Vidale, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood | | The interactive tool allows the exploration, validation and presentation of hundreds of years of dynamically simulated storm tracks. The tracks were generated as part of a research project to improve the risk assessment of tropical storm damage by the insurance industry..... |  |
| Paper | Poster: Tweeting Visualizations for Collaborative Visual Analysis | GIS & Geovisualisation | Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes and Jo Wood | | The demonstration of a new approach to collaborative visual analysis, in which descriptions of graphics are shared online. HiVE – a high-level descriptive language – captures the way in which graphics are built and configured.
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| Paper | Designing Visual Analytics Systems for Disease Spread and Evolution | GIS & Geovisualisation | Jo Wood, Aidan Slingsby and Jason Dykes | | A report on the design decisions and software development process used to create visual analytics software for understanding disease spread and mutation. |  |
| Paper | Rethinking Map Legends with Visualization | GIS & Geovisualisation | Jason Dykes, Jo Wood and Aidan Slingsby | | This design paper presents new guidance for creating map legends in a dynamic environment. It suggests is a set of guidelines for legend design in a visualization context and a series of illustrative themes through which they may be expressed. |  |
| Paper | Oil prices – Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion | Exposure & Vulnerability | Nigel Meade | | | |
| Article | Empirical Equations for the Prediction of the Significant, Bracketed, and Uniform Duration of Earthquake Ground Motion | Seismic | Julain J. Bommer, Peter J. Stafford and John E. Alarcon | | This article is an update and extension of the study of Kempton and Stewart (2006), which presented equations for the prediction of significant duration derived from the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) dataset; this article explores alternative functional forms for such equations and additionally presents equations for the prediction of other definitions of duration. |  |
| Article | Radar analyses of extreme rainfall and flooding in urban drainage basins | Hydrological | Gabrielle Villarini, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, Paula Sturdevant-Rees and Witold F. Krajewski | | In this study, we use observations from two WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) weather radars, a dense network of rain gages, and a network of stream gages to examine: (1) spacetime variability of extreme flood-producing rainfall, (2) radar rainfall estimation for extreme rain events, and (3) heterogeneous flood response to extreme rainfall in urban drainage basins. |  |
| Paper | Using probabilistic climate change information from a multimodel ensemble for water resources assessment | Hydrological | L. J. Manning, J. W. Hall, H. J. Fowler, C. G. Kilsby and C. Tebaldi | | The structure of the paper reflects the multiple stages of the analysis required for climate impacts studies. |  |
| Paper | Constructing hierarchical Archimedean copulas with Lévy subordinators | GIS & Geovisualisation | Marius Hofert | | | |
| Article | Downscaling transient climate change using a Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses stochastic rainfall model | Hydrological | A. Burton, H.J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop and C.G. Kilsby | | The presentation of a new transient rainfall simulation methodology which combines dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques to produce transient (i.e. temporally non-stationary) climate change scenarios. |  |
| Paper | Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts | Atmospheric | Christopher W. Landsea, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Lennart Bengtsson and Thomas R. Knutson | | This study explores the influence of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes inTCfrequency, using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). |  |
| Paper | WRN release latest research bulletin on insurance risk from volcanic eruptions in Europe | General | Willis Research Network | | This paper, authored by Prof Robin Spence of Cambridge Architectural Research Limited, Prof Giulio Zuccaro, Scientific Director, Plinius Centre, University of Naples Federico II and Dr Rashmin Gunasekera, of Willis Analytics, provides a detailed review of risk from Vesuvius and proposes a new risk ranking of European volcanoes, with a focus on insurance risk potential. |  |
| Paper | Configuring Hierarchical Layouts to Address Research Questions | GIS & Geovisualisation | Aidan Slingsby, Jo Wood and Jason Dykes | | This paper explores the effects of selecting alternative layouts in hierarchical displays that show multiple aspects of large multivariate datasets, including spatial and temporal characteristics. |  |
| Article | Cracking an Open Safe: More HAZUS Vulnerability Functions in Terms of Structure-Independent Intensity | Seismic | Keith Porter | | In this work, mean repair cost is tabulated against intensity measures, for various combinations of model building type, code design level, occupancy class, seismic environment, NEHRP site soil class, magnitude range and distance range. |  |
| Article | The Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Cyclones in Past, Present and Future Climates | Climate Change | James Done, Aixue Hu, E. Christa Farmer, Jianjun Yin, Susas Bates, Amy B. Frappier, Daria J. Halkides, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Ryan Sriver and Jonathan Woodruff | | Understanding the interactions between tropical cyclones and the thermohaline circulation (THC) and their contributions to climate and climate change is an intriguing, challenging, and important area of research........ |  |
| Paper | A dynamic rating curve approach to indirect discharge | GIS & Geovisualisation | F. Dottori, M. L. V. Martina and E. Todini | | In the present work, an original approach, based on simultaneous stage measurements at two adjacent cross sections, is introduced and compared to the approaches described in the literature. |  |
| Paper | WRN European Windstorm Clustering - Briefing Paper | Atmospheric | Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter David Stephenson, WRN Senior Academic, University of Exeter Ian Cook, Willis Re Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, Willis Re
| | This WRN Briefing Document provides an overview of the Serial Clustering of Intense European Windstorms paper. |  |
| Paper | Serial Clustering of Intense European Windstorms | Atmospheric | Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter
David Stephenson, WRN Senior Academic, University of Exeter
Ian Cook, Willis Re
Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, Willis Re | | This paper investigates how clustering of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones depends on the vorticity intensity of the windstorms, and the sampling time period over which storm transits are counted. |  |
| Article | Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin | Hydrological | Gabriele Villarini, James A. Smith, Francesco Serinaldi, Jerad Bales, Paul D. Bates and Witold F. Krajewski | | In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. |  |
| Paper | Current empirical ground-motion prediction equations for Europe and their application to Eurocode 8 | Seismic | Julian J. Bommer, Peter J. Stafford and Sinan Akkar | | Following a very brief overview of the historical development of ground-motion recording and prediction in Europe, the paper summarises the current state-of-the-art in terms of regional prediction equations. The paper then goes on to explore the issue of regional variations in earthquake ground-motion and challenges the frequently-made assumption that equations specific to individual countries or regions are required. |  |
| Article | Empirical equations for the prediction of the equivalent number of cycles of earthquake ground motion | Seismic | Peter J. Stafford and Julian J. Bommer | | In this study, the strong-motion data base assembled in the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) project is used to derive equations for two different measures of the effective numbers of cycles of ground motion as functions of magnitude, distance, and site classification. |  |
| Paper | System economics: overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting models | Atmospheric | D. Orrell and P. E. McSharry | | An outline of the main foundations for a theory of systems economics.
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| Article | Cracking an Open Safe: HAZUS Vulnerability Functions in Terms of Structure-Independent Spectral Acceleration | Seismic | Keith Porter | | The HAZUS-MH Technical Manual provides a method and data for calculating earthquake loss to ordinary buildings using in part the capacity spectrum method (CSM) of structural analysis. |  |
| Paper | Multivariate hierarchical copulas with shocks | GIS & Geovisualisation | Marius Hofert | | | |
| Paper | Multi-Hazard Reliability Analysis of Lifeline Networks | Seismic | M. B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University
J. Kiyono, Kyoto University
Y. Ono, Kyoto University | | Paper submitted to the WCCE-ECCE-TCCE Joint Conference in Turkey. Willis Research Fellow Mohammad Javanbarg and team look at the multi-hazard reliability analysis of lifeline networks. |  |
| Paper | Fuzzy Decision Support System for Prioritization of Seismic Upgrading in Critical Infrastructure Systems | Seismic | M.B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Acadmic, Kyoto University
S. Takada, Kyoto University | | Paper submitted to to ASCE conference (TCLEE 2009) to be held in Oakland in June 2009. The authors look at developing a fuzzy decision support system. |  |
| Article | Large scale surface–subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves | Hydrological | Pascal Goderniaux, Serge Brouyère, Hayley J. Fowler, Stephen Blenkinsop, René Therrien, Philippe Orban, Alain Dassargues | | This study provides an improved methodology for the estimation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater reserves, where a physically-based surface–subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin (465 sq km), Belgium. |  |
| Article | A Pilot Study for the Collaborative Development of New Ways of Visualising Seasonal Climate Forecasts | Climate Change | Aidan Slingsby, Rachel Lowe, Jason Dykes, David Stephenson, Jo Wood and Tim Jupp | | Seasonal climate forecasts are used by climate scientists, government departments, utility agencies, health agencies and in agriculture. Uncertainties in environmental data and in numerical prediction models make such forecasts inherently probabilistic. Good decisions require that this uncertainty in predictions be communicated to users. Some established methods have limitations, prompting this collaborative work between data visualizers and climate scientists facilitated by the Willis Research Network. |  |
| Presentation | JCRP for Business and Society: A view from the Insurance Industry | WRN Related | Rowan Douglas, Managing Director, Willis Re & Chairman, Willis Research Network
| | Rowan Douglas' presentation at the Joint Climate Research Programme (JCRP) launch event in London |  |
| Presentation | Storm Surge Modeling and Climatology for the New York City Metropolitan Region | Hydrological | Dr. Brian Colle, Stony Brook University | | Dr Colle's storm surge presentation from the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009 |  |
| Presentation | Hurricanes in the Northeast United States | Atmospheric | James Done, Willis Research Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) | | Dr James Done's presentation on hurricane risk in the NE United States from the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009 |  |
| Presentation | Northeast Hurricane Risk: Present and Future | Atmospheric | Prof Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) | | Prof Emanuel's presentation on NE US hurricane risk from the March 2009 WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit.
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| Presentation | The Willis Hurricane Index | Atmospheric | Dr Greg Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) | | Dr Holland presents the Willis Hurricane Index at the March 2009 WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit |  |
| Presentation | Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change | Atmospheric | Prof Tom Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey | | Prof Knutson's presentation from the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009 |  |
| Presentation | Demand Surge | Exposure & Vulnerability | Dr. Anna Olsen, Willis Research Fellow, University of Colorado Prof. Keith Porter, University of Colorado | | Dr Anna Olsen presents her work on demand surge to the delegates at the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009 |  |
| Presentation | Business Interruption & Lifeline Damage | Exposure & Vulnerability | Prof Keith Porter, University of Colorado | | Prof Porter's presentation on business interruption to the delegates at the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009 |  |
| Presentation | Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Floods in the Eastern United States | Hydrological | Prof Jim Smith, Princeton University
Gabrielle Villarini, Willis Research Fellow, Princeton University | | Prof Smith's and Dr Villarini's presentation on extreme flood risk at the WRN Princeton Insurers' Summit in March 2009 |  |
| Presentation | WRN Princeton Insurers’ Summit - Presentations | Atmospheric |
- Brian Colle, State University of New York at Stony Brook
- James Done, Willis Research Fellow, NCAR
- Kerry Emanuel, MIT
- Greg Holland, NCAR
- Tom Knutson, GFDL at Princeton
- Anna Olsen, Willis Research Fellow, University of Colorado at Boulder
- Keith Porter, University of Colorado at Boulder
- James Smith, Princeton University
- Gabriele Villarini, Willis Research Fellow, Princeton University
| | Presentations from the WRN Cat 3 Hurricane in the Northeast: Insurers' Summit on 19 March 2009 |  |
| Paper | The Roles of Wind Shear and Thermal Stratification in Past and Projected Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity | Atmospheric | Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held, Thomas Kuntson and Joseph Sirutis | | A recent study using a high-resolution dynamical downscaling model has captured both the trend and interannual variations in Atlantic storm frequency with considerable fidelity. In the present work, this downscaling framework is used to assess the importance of the large-scale thermodynamic environment relative to other factors influencing Atlantic tropical storms. |  |
| Article | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for rock sites in the cities of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ra's Al Khaymah, United Arab Emirates | Atmospheric | G. Aldama-Bustos, J.J. Bommer, C.H. Fenton and P.J. Stafford | | The purpose of this study is to obtain a reliable estimate of the seismic hazard in the Emirates, expressed as uniform hazard spectra (UHS) on rock sites in three key cities in the country: Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ra's Al Khaymah.
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| Article | Introduction to the Willis Research Network | General | Willis Research Network | | This document gives a concise history and ethos of the network, a full list of members and institutions, and a breakdown of the core research programme |  |
| Paper | Minimal Path Sets Seismic Reliability Evaluation of Lifeline Networks | Seismic | M. B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University
C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University
J. Kiyono, Kyoto University
Y. Ono, Kyoto University
| | Paper submitted to to ASCE conference (TCLEE 2009) to be held in Oakland in June 2009. A heuristic minimal path sets method for analysing seismic reliability of lifeline networks is proposed. |  |
| Presentation | WRN/LMA Seminar - Thames Flood: A Level-headed approach | Hydrological | Kevin Horsburgh, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Prof Paul Bates, Bristol University Andrew McKenzie, British Geological Survey Dr Diane Horn & Jillian Eldridge, Birkbeck College, University of London Alex Nickson, Greater London Authority Nick Haigh, Environment Agency Dr Boyko Dodov, AIR Stefan Eppert, RMS
| | Slides from the joint WRN/Lloyd's Market Association Seminar on Thames flood risk in February 2009 |  |
| Article | An energy-based envelope function for the stochastic simulation of earthquake accelerograms | Seismic | P.J. Stafford, S. Sgobba and G.C. Marano | | The primary purpose of this article is to offer a new envelope function that represents the first component of a full non-stationary stochastic approach to accelerogram generation. |  |
| Article | Hurricane Risk at High Resolution | Atmospheric | Dr Greg Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Dr James Done, Willis Research Fellow, NCAR
| | Dr Greg Holland reveals his revolutionary research in Catastrophe Risk Management Magazine |  |
| Paper | Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions | Climate Change | Y. Hea, F. Wetterhall, H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, M. Wilsonc, J. Freerd and G. McGregore | | This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England. |  |
| Paper | Multi-model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes | Climate Change | H. J. Fowler and M. Ekstrom | | The overall aim of this study is to create regional multi-model ensemble distributions for each season showing projected change to the 5- and 25-year return values of long- and short-duration precipitation extremes using the weights developed for each region and RCM. |  |
| Article | The Role of Layout and Order in Treemaps for Showing Spatial and Temporal Variation in House Prices | GIS & Geovisualisation | Aidan Slingsby, Jason Dykes, Jo Wood and Andrew Crooks | | The price of property and how it varies spatially within cities through time can be linked to the economic and social processes of urban systems. Treemaps (Shneiderman, 1992) are used for visually exploring 1.8 million property sales in London between 2000 and 2007 – and focus on how the layout and ordering of elements in the treemap can reveal different information. |  |
| Paper | Flow tree for Exploring Spatial Trajectory | GIS & Geovisualisation | Jo Wood, Jason Dykes, Aidan Slingsby and Robert Radburn | | This paper presents a novel alternative representation of origin-destination topology that makes it more amenable to the visualization of structure and spatial organisation of trajectories. |  |
| Paper | Visualization of Uncertainty and Analysis of Geographical Data | GIS & Geovisualisation | Jo Wood, Aidan Slingsby, Naz Khalili-Shavarini, Jason Dykes and David Mountain | | A team of five worked on this challenge to identify a possible criminal strucutre within the Flitter social network. This summary of the work emphasises one of those applications detailing the geographic analysis and uncertainty handling of the network data. |  |
| Article | Editorial: Climate extremes: progress and future directions | Climate Change | Lisa V. Alexander, Nigel Tapper, Xuebin Zhang, Hayley J. Fowler, Claudia Tebaldi and Amanda Lynch | | This Special Issue of the International Journal of Climatology arose from two similar symposia held by the International Union of Geophysics and Geodesics (IUGG) and American Geophysical Union (AGU) in 2007. |  |
| Presentation | Serial clustering of intense European storms (Poster Presentation) | Atmospheric | Dr Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter | | Poster presentation from the Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans |  |
| Presentation | WRN Seminar - Supercomputers, Climate Change and Catastrophe Modelling | Atmospheric | Dr Greg Holland, WRN Senior Academic, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Dr Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter | | Slides from the WRN's December Seminar, including Dr Greg Holland's keynote presentation and new research from Willis Research Fellow Dr Renato Vitolo. |  |
| Paper | The ShakeOut Scenario: a Hypothetical MW7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault | Seismic | Dr Keith Porter, WRN Senior Academic, University of Colorado
Prof Charles Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University | | A summary of the most extensive earthquake planning scenario ever created for the United States |  |
| Article | European Geosciences Union 2009 - Call For Papers | Flyer | Matt Foote, Willis Research Network
David Bresch, Swiss Re Robert Muir-Wood, RMS Anselm Smolka, Munich Re | | The WRN's Call For Papers for the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009 |  |
| Article | Globalizing quake information | Seismic | | | Destruction from earthquakes continues to threaten poor and wealthy nations alike. The Global Earthquake Model is a potentially important step towards providing risk information on a worldwide basis, using a unifi ed standard. |  |
| Paper | A Review of Demand Surge Knowledge and Modelling Practice | Exposure & Vulnerability | Dr. Anna Olsen, Willis Research Fellow, University of Colorado at Boulder Prof. Keith Porter, WRN Senior Academic, University of Colorado at Boulder | | This state-of-the-art review summarises the research into demand surge thus far and summarises plans for a future quantitive model |  |
| Paper | Reliability Analysis of Infrastructure Networks Using OBDD | Seismic | M. B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University C. Scawthorn, WRN Senior Academic, Kyoto University
J. Kiyono, Kyoto University
Y. Ono, Kyoto University | | The authors of this paper propose a method for computing terminal-pair reliability of infrastructure networks based on Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) |  |
| Paper | Seismic Reliability Assessment of Water Supply Systems | Seismic | M.B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University S. Takada, Emeritus Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Kobe University | | This study develops a comprehensive seismic reliability model for serviceability assessment of water supply systems. |  |
| Paper | A Revised Hurricane Pressure–Wind Model | Atmospheric | Dr Greg Holland, WRN Senior Academic, National Center for Atmospheric Research | | Dr Holland presents a new technique for relating central pressure and maximum winds in tropical cyclones |  |
| Article | Insurers rise to flood challenges: Stuart Lane talks to the Financial Times | Hydrological | Professor Stuart Lane, WRN Senior Academic, Durham University | | Prof Stuart Lane talks to the UK's Financial Times about the Willis Research Network's new and novel ways of acquiring historical flood data |  |
| Presentation | State of the Art - Willis Research Fellows present to London Market | Atmospheric/Flood/Seismic | Dr Jane Strachan, Willis Research Fellow, Walker Institute, University of Reading Dr Renato Vitolo, Willis Research Fellow, University of Exeter Tim Fewtrell, Willis Research Fellow, University of Bristol Dr Emma Waterhouse, Willis Research Fellow, Durham University Dr Peter Stafford, Willis Research Fellow, Imperial College London
| | Presentations from the WRN's UK-based Fellows, given to a packed house of representatives from the London Market. Topics include Geovisualisation, General Circulation Models, Storm clustering, Urban Flood and Earthquake loss estimation. |  |
| Paper | A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise | Hydrological | Prof Paul Bates, WRN Senior Academic, University of Bristol | | This paper describes a new method for estimating future coastal flood risk that takes into account uncertainty over future sea level rise |  |
| Paper | The Thames Gateway: Flood risk, planning policy and insurance loss potential | Hydrological | Jillian Eldridge, Birkbeck College, University of London
Diane Horn, Birkbeck College, University of London | | This paper, using the Thames Gateway case study, presents an overview of flood issues in a generic context with a recognition of the difficulties of human interactions on the floodplain. |  |
| Paper | STATE-OF-THE-ART OF EUROPEAN EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION SOFTWARE | Seismic | F.O. Strasser 1 , P.J. Stafford 2 , J.J. Bommer 3 and M. Erdik | | A review of the state-of the art of loss estimation methodology and software has been carried out as part of subproject JRA3 of the NERIES (Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology) project currently being carried out in Europe. |  |
| Article | Climate Change at Home - UK Perspectives on the Changing Climate & Flooding | Climate Change | Professor Paul Bates, WRN Senior Academic, University of Bristol Professor Stuart Lane, WRN Senior Academic, Durham University | | WRN's Prof Paul Bates and Prof Stuart Lane talk UK flooding, climate change and the future in this year's International Underwriting Association (IUA) World @ Risk book |  |
| Paper | Tourists and disasters: lessons from the 26 December 2004 tsunamis | Seismic | Ilan Kelman Robin Spence, Jason Palmer, Marla Petal and Keiko Saito | | The 26 December 2004 tsunamis around the Indian Ocean exposed the vulnerability of many coastal communities, including those serving tourists. To draw conclusions regarding disaster risk reduction for tourism in coastal areas, this study surveyed international tourists who survived the tsunami regarding their perceptions and experiences of the disaster. |  |
| Presentation | Capital Catastrophe & Climate Change - Keynote Address to the Icelandic Innovation Center | Climate Change | Rowan Douglas, Chairman, Willis Research Network | | Rowan Douglas' keynote presentation to the Icenlandic Innovation Center in Reykjavik, examining some of the future challenges of climate change with a particular focus on Iceland. |  |
| Paper | Observations from the Folkestone, U.K., Earthquake of 28 April 2007 | Seismic | S. L. Sargeant, P. J. Stafford, R. Lawley, G. Weatherill, A.-J. S. Weston, J. J. Bommer, P. W. Burton, M. Free, R. M. W. Musson, T. Kuuyuor, and T. Rossetto
| | A compendium of observations from the Folkestone earthquake is presented here. This includes analysis of the first “strong-motion” record from a British earthquake, a description of the damage, an investigation of how the distribution of damage may relate to the distribution of unconsolidated deposits, and the results of the macroseismic survey for the earthquake. |  |
| Paper | Preparing for a New View of U.S. Earthquake Risk | Seismic | Prasad Gunturi, Willis' Director of US Modeling Research Kyle Beatty, Vice President, Willis
| | A look at how the vendor earthquake models may change in response to the recent release of new science from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) |  |
| Article | Google Earth and Risk Management - A New Future | GIS & Geovisualisation | Dr Aidan Slingsby, Willis Research Fellow, City University London | | The WRN's Dr Aidan Slingsby talks Google, Geovisualisation and GIS to reinsurance magazine, The Review |  |
| Paper | Priority evaluation of seismic mitigation in pipeline networks | Seismic | M.B. Javanbarg, Willis Research Fellow, Kyoto University S. Takada, Kobe University Y. Kuwata, Kobe University | | This paper develops a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to support decision making for priority evaluation of the pipelines renewal applicable to metropolitan water distribution networks |  |