In an industry-first, the Willis Research Network (WRN) has joined forces with internationally renowned universities to harness the immense power of the NEC Earth Simulator in Yokohama, Japan to help insurers understand the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes in the face of climate change. The ability to use the Earth Simulator in conjunction with the expertise of the WRN and its partners, focused for the first time on the direct needs of the insurance industry, marks a major step from global modelling towards regional and local impact and promises to be of profound significance to the international reinsurance and insurance industry.

 

Over the next three years the Willis Research Network will work with teams of researchers in Japan and the UK to help apply the Earth Simulator to the needs of the Japanese and international insurance market across a range of hazards. The ultimate aim of the research programme is to provide improved inputs into catastrophe models and realistic disaster scenarios giving underwriters much greater confidence in
understanding future risk across key regions and weather perils.

 

The Earth Simulator, one of the world’s most powerful supercomputers is used to run the Hadley Centre's climate model, HadGEM, under the UK-Japan Climate Collaboration (UJCC). The University of Reading’s Walker Institute and the Met Office Hadley Centre are both involved and the whole project is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The Hadley Centre’s model has provided major inputs into the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Recently UJCC scientists have performed climate simulations with HadGEM at unprecedented detail, enabling the study of important processes, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and of climate extremes, such as cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes. It is this that has led to particular interest from the Willis Research Network.

 

According to Rowan Douglas, Chairman of the Willis Research Network, “We are just reaching the stage where the power of this immense computer platform, coupled with improvements in simulation techniques and climate modelling allow us to model regional weather and extreme events rather than just the mean climate. This has profound implications for insurers. It opens the possibility for the insurance market to better prepare for the level of events that may arise from climate change.”
 
Please see the full release below.