Members of the Willis Research Network (WRN) have joined with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) to develop a scenario that shows how a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the San Andreas Fault could cause long-lasting social and economic consequences, including critical damage to infrastructure, transportation and power.

 

WRN Senior Academic Keith Porter of the University of Colorado led the overall assessment of physical damages, while WRN Senior Academic Charles Scawthorn of Kyoto University performed the analysis of fire following an earthquake. The final report will be jointly published by the USGS and the CGS.

 

The study concluded that a massive earthquake could cause up to $200bn in damages and more than 50,000 casualties. One-third of the economic loss would be attributable to fire following the earthquake, another third to shake-related property loss, and most of the rest to direct and indirect business losses associated with the interruption of water supply. Fatalities are approximately equally attributable to fire and shake-related damage.

 

Full details of the report are available at: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1947.

 

For more information please contact Nick Thorpe at nick.thorpe@willis.com