Dr Jane Strachan, Willis Research Fellow, Walker Institute, University of Reading

Summary of research currently being undertaken within the Willis Research Network using highresolution, global climate models to simulate tropical cyclones in a global climate context.

This paper outlines and summarises the WRN's use of dynamical models of the earth's climate system to
simulate past, present and future climate conditions, using observational data to validate simulations.

 

The aim of this research is to begin to integrate dynamical modelling, or at least the results from dynamical modelling, into the stochastic modelling approach, so that catastrophe
modelling can benefit from increased understanding of the dynamical climate- in terms of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change- and how these changes may
alter risk associated with destructive weather events.

Analysis will focus on parameters of concern to the insurance industry tracks will be considered in terms of landfall location, and intensity in terms of maximum wind speed and precipitation along the storm path.