The Willis Research Network has teamed up with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in undertaking the most detailed projections ever of future hurricane activity in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. With first results expected next spring, the programme seeks to help onshore and offshore underwriters confront the uncertainties climate change has brought over risk levels in recent years.

 

NCAR’s premier models for weather and climate have been combined in a major simulation utilising the NCAR Bluefire supercomputer, operating at 76 trillion calculations per second, to assess changes in future location, frequency, wind severity and rainfall of hurricane tracks across this key region.

 

"It is clear from the impacts of recent hurricane activity that we urgently need to learn more about how hurricane intensity and behaviour may respond to a warming climate,” said Professor Greg Holland, NCAR Project Leader and Willis Research Network member. “The increasingly dense development along our coastlines and our dependence on oil from the Gulf of Mexico leave our society dangerously vulnerable to hurricanes."

 

Dr James Done, Willis Research Fellow at NCAR and part of the project team added, “The project includes two strategic firsts for the hurricane modelling community. It will integrate global, Atlantic and local-scale models working at progressively higher resolutions. This allows us to link the detailed physics of local storms with the global influences that drive the necessary conditions for cyclone genesis and development.

 

"The second strategic step is to unify the weather forecasting and climate modelling communities within a single project and platform. It is very exciting and is the future of hurricane climate research."

 

The focus for Willis is to apply this work into the insurance industry quickly and practically.

 

Please see the full release below for more information